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Pro League

Al Taawoun - Al Hilal

09/12/2026, 03:50 PM

0 : 6
Expected Goals
Al Taawoun
1.2
Total xG
2.9
Al Hilal
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ATAH

Al Taawoun

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
-0.54
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.20
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.15
Abderrazak Hamdallah not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

Al Hilal

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.49
Attack strength (1.81x league average)
+0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
-0.03
Sultan Mandash on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Hilal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Al Hilal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

27%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Table disparity: Third-placed Al Hilal face fourteenth-placed Al Taawoun
  • Tactical superiority: Al Hilal averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Al Taawoun's 3.2
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis estimates a 48% win probability for the away side Al Hilal
Risk Factors
  • Low-scoring stadium trend: Matches at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium recently averaged only 1.0 goals
  • Abderrazak Hamdallah is missing for Al Taawoun leaving only 71% of their active goal threat available
  • Declining offensive output for Al Taawoun with recently 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
Overview

Al Taawoun host Al Hilal at the King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Pro League match on September 12, 2026, 4:50 PM

Al Taawoun sit in 14th place with 3 points near the relegation zone

Al Hilal travel as 3rd in the standings with 15 points fighting for the top

Form

Al Taawoun show weak form with the form string LDLDL

The home team recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses across all competitions

Al Hilal display strong form with the form string WWWWL

The visitors achieved 4 wins and suffered 1 defeat

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Taawoun scored an average of 1.74 goals per match while conceding 1.35 this season

Al Hilal stand out offensively with an average of 2.50 goals scored and only 0.79 conceded per game

At home Al Taawoun scored an average of 1.71 goals

Al Hilal remain highly dangerous on the road with 2.44 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches Al Hilal won 2 times with 2 draws

The goal difference stands at 3:7 against Al Taawoun

The last encounter ended in a 2:2 draw on April 4, 2026

Key Players

Marin Petkov impresses with an average rating of 7.47 and 1 assist in 6 matches

Bassam Al-Hurayji solidifies the defense and already scored 1 goal this season

RĆŗben Neves leads Al Hilal with 3 goals, 2 assists and a strong rating of 7.92

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic contributed 4 goals in 6 matches

Crysencio Summerville shines with 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Mailson guards the goal for Al Taawoun with 6 clean sheets and a rating of 7.28

Yassine Bounou stars for Al Hilal keeping 16 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Stadium history shows a very low-scoring trend with an average of only 1.0 goals per game

Home advantage for Al Taawoun might be compromised by their current poor form

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