Match report →
Al Taawoun – Al Hilal0 : 6
Why the model thinks so
Al Taawoun
1.22
Total xG
2.93
Al Hilal
1.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Taawoun | Al Hilal |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.54 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.81x league average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Abderrazak Hamdallah not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 61% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Sultan Mandash on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 83% available) |
Key factors
- Table disparity: Third-placed Al Hilal face fourteenth-placed Al Taawoun
- Tactical superiority: Al Hilal averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Al Taawoun's 3.2
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis estimates a 48% win probability for the away side Al Hilal
Risks
- Low-scoring stadium trend: Matches at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium recently averaged only 1.0 goals
- Abderrazak Hamdallah is missing for Al Taawoun leaving only 71% of their active goal threat available
- Declining offensive output for Al Taawoun with recently 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
All probabilities
Result
Al Taawoun26%
Draw27%
Al Hilal47%
Double chance
Al Taawoun or draw53%
Al Hilal or draw74%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Al Hilal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
Lineups
Al Taawoun 5-4-1 · Al Hilal 4-3-3
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 6 M. Alhurayji
- 40 I. Mahnashi
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 19 O. Dorley
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 8 P. Guiagon
- 47 Y. El Bahraoui
Al Hilal
- 37 Y. Bounou
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 87 H. Al Tambakti
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 22 S. Milinković-Savić
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 28 M. Kanno
- 7 G. Martinelli Silva
- 11 O. Watkins
- 38 C. Summerville
Substitutes
- 10 N. Bajrami
- 16 F. Al Ghamdi
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 4 N. Al Haleel
- 23 R. Altulayhi
- 14 S. Rashad Mohamed
- 43 N. Al Hawairy
- 70 A. Hendi
- 30 A. Al Jadani
- 4 Y. Akçiçek
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 93 A. Al Anazi
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 27 S. Madash
- 73 M. Al-Sarnukh
- 33 M. Al Owais
- 96 S. Alzaid
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