Match report →
Al Khaleej – Al Nassr1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Khaleej
1.02
Total xG
2.73
Al Nassr
1.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Khaleej | Al Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −1.01 | |
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | +0.85 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.56 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.34 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Standings gap: Al Nassr secured 15 points and won four of their last five matches, while Al Khaleej remain completely winless
- Offensive dominance: Al Nassr average 2.68 goals per season game, whereas Al Khaleej's recent scoring has stalled to just 0.5 goals on average
- Historical upper hand: Al Nassr won all 4 previous direct duels with a combined goal difference of 14 to 2
Risks
- Low active goal share: Only 16% of Al Nassr's seasonal goal production is active within the available squad players
- Al Khaleej defensive struggles: The hosts conceded an average of 4.0 goals per game in recent matches, well above their seasonal average
- High-scoring venue trend: The EGO STADIUM averages 4.4 total goals per match with an 80% BTTS rate, indicating high volatility
All probabilities
Result
Al Khaleej21%
Draw27%
Al Nassr52%
Double chance
Al Khaleej or draw48%
Al Nassr or draw79%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Nassr: 11 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (92% win rate)
- Al Khaleej: opponent scores first in 8 of 9 games (89%)
- Al Nassr: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sadio Mané: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
Lineups
Al Khaleej 4-3-3 · Al Nassr 4-4-2
Al Khaleej
- 49 A. Moris
- 39 S. Al Hamsal
- 4 B. Kouyate
- 3 M. Al Khabrani
- 5 P. Braga Rebocho
- 19 M. Crespo da Silva
- 8 O. Mascarell González
- 12 M. Kanabah
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 11 S. Al Jaman
- 10 A. Fulgini
Al Nassr
- 24 B. Krepski
- 12 N. Boushal
- 5 A. Al Amri
- 26 Í. Martínez Berridi
- 6 S. Al Nasser
- 20 ?. Borges Damaceno
- 11 S. Costa
- 17 A. Alkhaibari
- 10 S. Mané
- 79 J. Sequeira
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Substitutes
- 97 F. Al Rashidi
- 14 A. Al Shaafi
- 15 M. Hamzi
- 96 M. Al-Haidari
- 17 A. Al Hafith
- 27 F. Al Sagourq
- 29 R. Al-Shanqiti
- 16 B. Munshi
- 28 H. Al Issa
- 9 A. Al Hamdan
- 50 M. Mohammed
- 1 N. Alaqidi
- 3 M. Simakan
- 4 N. Al Sharari
- 60 S. Haqawi
- 70 A. Aman
- 56 R. Al Ghamdi
- 14 S. Al Naji
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