Pro League
Al Khaleej - Al Nassr
09/12/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.7
1.7
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
9%2:1
6%1:3
6%What influences the xG?
Al Khaleej
Al Nassr
League
The Lab
- 1Al Nassr: 11 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (92% win rate)
- 2Al Khaleej: opponent scores first in 8 of 9 games (89%)
- 3Al Nassr: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 4Sadio Mané: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
27%
Away Win
52%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
48%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Standings gap: Al Nassr secured 15 points and won four of their last five matches, while Al Khaleej remain completely winless
- Offensive dominance: Al Nassr average 2.68 goals per season game, whereas Al Khaleej's recent scoring has stalled to just 0.5 goals on average
- Historical upper hand: Al Nassr won all 4 previous direct duels with a combined goal difference of 14 to 2
Risk Factors
- Low active goal share: Only 16% of Al Nassr's seasonal goal production is active within the available squad players
- Al Khaleej defensive struggles: The hosts conceded an average of 4.0 goals per game in recent matches, well above their seasonal average
- High-scoring venue trend: The EGO STADIUM averages 4.4 total goals per match with an 80% BTTS rate, indicating high volatility
Overview
Al Khaleej host Al Nassr at the EGO STADIUM
Pro League fixture on September 12, 2026, 8:00 PM
The hosts are in 13th place with 4 points near the bottom of the table
Al Nassr travel as the clear favorites in 4th place with 15 points
The mathematical model calculates an away win probability of 52%
Form
Al Khaleej are still waiting for their first league win with a form of DDLLD
The home side recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses recently
Al Nassr show a strong form of WWWWL with 4 wins and 1 loss
While Al Nassr score consistently, Al Khaleej's goal production has stalled at just 0.5 goals per game recently
Statistics
Al Khaleej score an average of 1.59 goals and concede 1.82 goals per game this season
The hosts averaged 2.8 shots on target from 9.4 total shots per game in recent matches
Al Nassr score an impressive 2.68 goals per match while conceding only 0.82 goals
The visitors averaged 7.2 shots on target from 16.2 total shots in recent matches
Head-to-Head
Al Nassr dominate the direct history with 4 wins from 4 matches
The goal difference stands at 14 to 2 goals in favor of the visitors
The last head-to-head match ended in a dominant 5-0 victory for Al Nassr on March 14, 2026
Key Players
Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman has 1 goal in 6 appearances with a rating of 6.92
Omar Mascarell shows stable performances in midfield with a rating of 6.78
Angelo Fulgini has 3 appearances with a strong average rating of 7.03
JoĂŁo FĂ©lix leads the visitors with 2 goals, 2 assists, and a rating of 7.95
Sadio Mané contributed 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.45
Cristiano Ronaldo scored 3 goals with an average rating of 7.32 in 5 matches
Goalkeepers
Anthony Moris starts in goal for Al Khaleej with an average rating of 6.78
The hosts recorded 4 clean sheets this season
Bento guards the goal for Al Nassr with a rating of 6.27
The visitors boast an impressive 17 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match is played on natural grass at the EGO STADIUM
The stadium statistics show a high-scoring average of 4.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played at the EGO STADIUM
Al Khaleej score an average of 1.56 goals and concede 1.72 goals at home