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Pro League

Al-Qadsiah - Al Ettifaq

09/11/2026, 03:25 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Al-Qadsiah
2.1
Total xG
3.0
Al Ettifaq
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
AL-AE

Al-Qadsiah

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.84
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.38
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Julian Weigl on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)

Al Ettifaq

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.50
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Moussa Dembélé on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists)
Álvaro Medrán on the bench (1 goals, 8 assists)
Madallah Al-Olayan on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 49% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Squad impact: Only 50% of Al Ettifaq's goal threat is available, with Moussa Dembélé, Álvaro Medrán, and Madallah Al-Olayan missing
  • Tactical dominance: Al-Qadsiah recently averaged 6.2 shots on target per match with 58% possession
  • Strong home record: Al-Qadsiah scores an average of 2.5 goals at home while conceding only 0.81
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Al-Qadsiah has a tight recovery window with only 3 days since their last match
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Al-Qadsiah (3rd place, 15 points) host Al Ettifaq (8th place, 10 points) at the EGO STADIUM

Pro League match on September 11, 2026, 5:25 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 61% probability

Form

Al-Qadsiah shows strong form with the form string WWLWW and 4 wins from the last 5 matches

Al Ettifaq has an inconsistent form with the form string LDWWL and 2 wins

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al-Qadsiah scores an average of 2.44 goals and concedes only 1 goal per match

Al Ettifaq averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded

Al-Qadsiah's home record is highly offensive with 2.5 goals scored per match

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Al-Qadsiah won 2 times and Al Ettifaq won once, with 1 draw

The goal difference is 9:4 in favor of Al-Qadsiah

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 win for Al Ettifaq on April 5, 2026

Key Players

Julián Quiñones shines for Al-Qadsiah with 33 goals and 4 assists this season

Mateo Retegui supports the attack with 16 goals and 1 assist

For Al Ettifaq, Khalid Al-Ghannam is the most dangerous player with 13 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Koen Casteels guards the goal for Al-Qadsiah and has kept 10 clean sheets this season

Al Ettifaq relies on Turki Ba Al-Jawsh, whose team has kept 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the EGO STADIUM

The venue statistics show an average of 3.2 goals per match at this location

Al-Qadsiah benefits from home advantage, conceding only 0.81 goals on average in front of their fans

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