Match report →
Al-Qadsiah – Al Ettifaq3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al-Qadsiah
2.05
Total xG
3.04
Al Ettifaq
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al-Qadsiah | Al Ettifaq |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.84 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.46 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Julian Weigl on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Moussa Dembélé on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Álvaro Medrán on the bench (1 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Madallah Al-Olayan on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 49% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Only 50% of Al Ettifaq's goal threat is available, with Moussa Dembélé, Álvaro Medrán, and Madallah Al-Olayan missing
- Tactical dominance: Al-Qadsiah recently averaged 6.2 shots on target per match with 58% possession
- Strong home record: Al-Qadsiah scores an average of 2.5 goals at home while conceding only 0.81
Risks
- High workload: Al-Qadsiah has a tight recovery window with only 3 days since their last match
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Al-Qadsiah61%
Draw23%
Al Ettifaq16%
Double chance
Al-Qadsiah or draw84%
Al Ettifaq or draw39%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
3:3
Final score
Lineups
Al-Qadsiah 3-5-2 · Al Ettifaq 4-4-2
Al-Qadsiah
- 1 K. Casteels
- 4 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 6 J. Fernández Iglesias
- 17 P. Álvarez Sosa
- 2 M. Al Shamat
- 8 N. Nández Acosta
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 10 M. Aljuwayr
- 22 C. Baah
- 33 J. Quiñones Quiñones
- 32 M. Retegui
Al Ettifaq
- 92 T. Baljoush
- 61 R. Al Otaibi
- 4 J. Hendry
- 70 A. Khateeb
- 13 M. Alaeli
- 80 R. Messi Tanfouri
- 42 A. Raslan Kanté
- 11 O. Duda
- 7 K. Al Ghannam
- 58 Y. Al Shammari
- 43 B. Celina
Substitutes
- 46 A. Alelewai
- 7 T. Al-Ammar
- 9 A. Al Salem
- 12 Y. Al Shahrani
- 15 M. Al Qahtani
- 28 A. Al Kassar
- 27 E. Houssa
- 18 A. Al Jaber
- 19 A. Haitham
- 17 J. Larsson
- 78 M. Tambakti
- 3 A. Madu
- 10 Á. Medrán Just
- 33 M. Alolayan
- 87 M. Ali
- 77 A. Abdulelah
- 9 M. Dembélé
- 23 A. Hawsawy
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