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Pro League

Al Ahli - Al Hazm

09/11/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Al Ahli
2.2
Total xG
3.0
Al Hazm
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

3:0

10%

1:1

9%

2:1

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
AAAH

Al Ahli

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+1.08
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.50
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap)
+0.07
Firas Al-Buraikan on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Rayan Hamed on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Al Hazm

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.86
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap)
-0.04
Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 52% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Hazm: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (6 of 15 total)

  • 2
    Al Ahli: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

20%

Away Win

9%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

91%

Away or Draw

29%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Weakened visitors: Al Hazm has only 53% of their usual goal threat available without Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe
  • Clear model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 71% probability of a home win for Al Ahli
  • Defense gap: Al Ahli's strong defense (0.74 goals conceded on average) meets Al Hazm's fragile away defense (1.93 away goals conceded on average)
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue risk: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Form slump for Al Ahli: The home team secured only one victory in their last five competitive matches
  • Struggling attack: Al Ahli averaged 1.8 goals recently, down from their season average of 2.1
Overview

Al Ahli (9th place, 9 points) host Al Hazm (10th place, 8 points) at the Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Pro League match on September 11, 2026, 7:00 PM

A mid-table clash with a clear favorite role for Al Ahli according to the model

Form

Form string Al Ahli: DLLWL

Form string Al Hazm: WWLDW

Al Ahli have only 1 win and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Al Hazm are in better form with 3 wins and only 1 loss in their last 5 games

Statistics

Al Ahli average 2.09 goals scored and 0.74 goals conceded per game

Al Hazm average 1.12 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per game

Al Ahli are defensively strong with 17 clean sheets this season

Al Hazm recorded only 4 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in the database

Al Ahli won both encounters with a goal difference of 4-0

The last meeting ended in a 2-0 win for Al Ahli on February 5, 2026

Key Players

Ivan Toney has scored 32 goals and provided 7 assists with a 7.51 rating

Galeno has registered 1 goal and 7 assists with a 7.05 rating

Aboubacar Bah has contributed 3 goals for Al Hazm with a 7.12 rating

Goalkeepers

Edouard Mendy plays for Al Ahli with a 6.87 rating and contributed to 17 clean sheets

Ibrahim Zaied is in goal for Al Hazm with a 7.04 rating and contributed to 4 clean sheets

Influences

The Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium averages 5.0 goals per match

Al Ahli boast a strong home record, scoring 2.05 goals and conceding only 0.59 on average

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