Match report →
Al Ahli – Al Hazm3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Ahli
2.25
Total xG
2.96
Al Hazm
0.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Ahli | Al Hazm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +1.08 | |
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.86 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.50 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.04 | |
| Firas Al-Buraikan on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rayan Hamed on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 61% of goal output missing (only 52% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Weakened visitors: Al Hazm has only 53% of their usual goal threat available without Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe
- Clear model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 71% probability of a home win for Al Ahli
- Defense gap: Al Ahli's strong defense (0.74 goals conceded on average) meets Al Hazm's fragile away defense (1.93 away goals conceded on average)
Risks
- Fatigue risk: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Form slump for Al Ahli: The home team secured only one victory in their last five competitive matches
- Struggling attack: Al Ahli averaged 1.8 goals recently, down from their season average of 2.1
All probabilities
Result
Al Ahli71%
Draw20%
Al Hazm9%
Double chance
Al Ahli or draw91%
Al Hazm or draw29%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
3:0
10%
1:1
9%
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hazm: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (6 of 15 total)
- Al Ahli: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Al Ahli 4-1-4-1 · Al Hazm 4-2-3-1
Al Ahli
- 16 E. Mendy
- 15 S. Baattia
- 28 M. Demiral
- 3 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 2 Z. Al Hawsawi
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 47 W. Saleh
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 13 W. Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno
- 17 I. Toney
Al Hazm
- 23 I. Zaied
- 2 S. Al Rashed
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 4 S. Tanker
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 24 A. Bah
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 7 E. Acolatse
- 29 A. Diakite
Substitutes
- 21 A. Radif
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 29 M. Yousef
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
- 25 Faisal Ibrahim Ahmed Fallatah
- 36 J. Staněk
- 5 M. Issa Al Yami
- 10 A. Sayoud
- 82 A. Muslim Al-Harbi
- 8 M. Konate
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 95 J. Ateeq
- 98 A. Al-Hujaili
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