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Pro League

NEOM SC - Al Fateh

09/13/2026, 04:20 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
NEOM SC
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Al Fateh
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
NSAF

NEOM SC

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Al Fateh

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.89
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match)
-0.36
Declining form (0 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.36
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.05
Fahad Aqeel Al-Zubaidi on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)

  • 2
    Al Fateh: 4 of 9 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Al Fateh: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 12 total)

  • 4
    NEOM SC: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

29%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Squad Impact: Only 16% of NEOM SC's goal production is available according to current data
  • Form trend: Al Fateh's goal production has stalled at 0.0 recently compared to a season average of 1.2
  • Statistical edge: NEOM SC holds a calculated win probability of 53% while Al Fateh struggle on the road
Risk Factors
  • Injury loss: M. Saadane is missing for Al Fateh due to a leg injury
  • Low offensive threat: Al Fateh averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Away weakness: Al Fateh conceded 29 goals in 13 away matches
Overview

NEOM SC host Al Fateh at the King Khalid Sport City Stadium

Pro League match on September 13, 2026, 5:20 PM

NEOM SC occupy 6th place with 12 points

Al Fateh are in 15th place with 3 points

The hosts enter this match as favorites

Form

NEOM SC show a stable form with the sequence WLLWW

The hosts recently recorded 3 wins and 2 losses

Al Fateh are still waiting for their first win with the form DLLDD

The visitors registered 3 draws and 2 losses recently

(Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

NEOM SC scored an average of 1.26 goals per game this season

The hosts conceded an average of 1.41 goals

Al Fateh scored an average of 1.21 goals per match

The visitors conceded an average of 1.62 goals

Away from home, Al Fateh concede an average of 2.23 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between the teams

Al Fateh lead the record with one win and one draw

The goal difference is 2:3 from NEOM SC's perspective

The last encounter on May 2, 2026 ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

Amadou Koné scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Alexandre Lacazette recorded 3 goals and 1 assist for the hosts

Mourad Batna has 9 goals and 8 assists for Al Fateh

Not nominated for the visitors is Fahad Aqeel Al-Zubaidi (3 goals, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Marcin Bulka plays in goal for NEOM SC with an average rating of 7.11

NEOM SC achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Adrian Semper guards the goal for Al Fateh

Al Fateh recorded 7 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the King Khalid Sport City Stadium

Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the 5 home matches

NEOM SC score an average of 1.25 goals at home

Al Fateh conceded 29 goals in 13 away matches

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