Match report →
NEOM SC – Al Fateh4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
NEOM SC
1.52
Total xG
2.30
Al Fateh
0.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | NEOM SC | Al Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.89 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match) | −0.36 | |
| Declining form (0 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.36 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Fahad Aqeel Al-Zubaidi on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad Impact: Only 16% of NEOM SC's goal production is available according to current data
- Form trend: Al Fateh's goal production has stalled at 0.0 recently compared to a season average of 1.2
- Statistical edge: NEOM SC holds a calculated win probability of 53% while Al Fateh struggle on the road
Risks
- Injury loss: M. Saadane is missing for Al Fateh due to a leg injury
- Low offensive threat: Al Fateh averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Away weakness: Al Fateh conceded 29 goals in 13 away matches
All probabilities
Result
NEOM SC53%
Draw29%
Al Fateh18%
Double chance
NEOM SC or draw82%
Al Fateh or draw47%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Al Fateh: 4 of 9 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Al Fateh: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 12 total)
- NEOM SC: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 11 games)
Lineups
NEOM SC 4-4-2 · Al Fateh 4-3-3
NEOM SC
- 1 M. Bulka
- 15 A. Abdulmalik
- 5 M. Sarr
- 44 N. Zeze
- 27 I. Hawsawi
- 77 M. Saeed Al Saad
- 18 A. Hejji
- 72 A. Koné
- 14 Khalil Alabsi
- 91 A. Lacazette
- 70 H. Camara
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Šemper
- 87 S. Bin Mahmoud Al Tumbukti
- 4 Z. Aljari
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 16 A. Al Khaibari
- 6 A. Al Hassan
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
- 11 M. Batna
- 9 A. Kanga
- 10 L. Haraslín
Substitutes
- 8 F. Al-Ghamdi
- 4 K. Aldawsari
- 6 A. Alhassan
- 55 M. Al Dosari
- 23 V. Vada
- 7 G. Masouras
- 19 M. Abu Taha
- 22 A. Al-Anzi
- 33 A. Dagriri
- 19 R. Kelder
- 7 F. Al Zubaidi
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 25 M. Al Sahihi
- 63 M. Khaled Alshqaq
- 21 J. Ramos
- 20 H. Essadak
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