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Al Shabab – Al Taawoun3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Shabab
1.69
Total xG
3.00
Al Taawoun
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Shabab | Al Taawoun |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | +0.73 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.63 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.43 | |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.39 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical model calculates a 45% home win probability with expected goals of 1.69 to 1.31
- Al Taawoun's goal output dropped recently to an average of 0.33 goals per match
- Al Shabab averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.4 for Al Taawoun
Risks
- Al Taawoun won the most recent head-to-head convincingly 5-1
- Both teams remain winless in the league after 7 matches
- Al Taawoun conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Shabab45%
Draw27%
Al Taawoun28%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
Al Shabab or draw72%
Al Taawoun or draw55%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (15 points lost)
- Al Taawoun: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Al Shabab: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
Lineups
Al Shabab 4-4-2 · Al Taawoun 4-2-3-1
Al Shabab
- 1 M. Diaw
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 55 A. Al Bulayhi
- 12 S. Al-Enezi
- 37 A. Saeed
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 29 Y. Adli
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
- 49 R. Mathias da Silva
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 40 I. Mahnashi
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 32 M. Al Mufarrij
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 16 F. Al Ghamdi
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 10 N. Bajrami
- 8 P. Guiagon
- 9 A. Hamdallah
Substitutes
- 3 M. Barry
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 24 A. Al Obod
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 2 M. Al Shwirekh
- 27 A. Al Hawsawi
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 99 H. Al-Khorayef
- 97 M. Khadari
- 19 O. Dorley
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 4 N. Al Haleel
- 23 R. Altulayhi
- 6 M. Alhurayji
- 47 Y. El Bahraoui
- 70 A. Hendi
- 30 A. Al Jadani
- 45 M. Al-Saadi
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