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Al Kholood – Al-Qadsiah0 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Al Kholood
1.43
Total xG
3.09
Al-Qadsiah
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Kholood | Al-Qadsiah |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.62x league average) | +0.60 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.44 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Edgaras Utkus on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Shaquille Pinas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Al-Qadsiah won all 4 head-to-head matches with an aggregate score of 15 to 2
- Offensive pressure: Al-Qadsiah averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Only 18% of Al-Qadsiah's seasonal goal threat is available due to squad selection
Risks
- Al Kholood concedes an average of 2.07 goals per home game this season
- Al Kholood failed to score in 15 out of 34 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Al Kholood32%
Draw27%
Al-Qadsiah42%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Al Kholood or draw58%
Al-Qadsiah or draw68%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
0:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Kholood: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al Kholood: 71% of all goals in the first half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
Al Kholood 4-2-3-1 · Al-Qadsiah 3-5-2
Al Kholood
- 1 H. Abdullah Yousef
- 24 O. Slimani
- 47 A. Al Obaid
- 25 M. Camara
- 7 S. Al Qahimi Al Shehri
- 8 S. Cisse
- 6 J. Buckley
- 70 M. Samili
- 10 I. Kortajarena Canellada
- 11 C. Gomes da Costa
- 22 J. Domingues
Al-Qadsiah
- 1 K. Casteels
- 4 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 6 J. Fernández Iglesias
- 17 P. Álvarez Sosa
- 2 M. Al Shamat
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 5 J. Weigl
- 10 M. Aljuwayr
- 22 C. Baah
- 32 M. Retegui
- 33 J. Quiñones Quiñones
Substitutes
- 38 S. Pinas
- 26 Y. bin Al Zubaidi
- 15 R. Solan
- 30 M. Alshammari
- 39 A. Aldawsari
- 99 G. Gouveia Rodrigues Cruz
- 48 M. Abdullah Al Yahya
- 41 I. Barabaa
- 5 E. Utkus
- 52 R. Jaman
- 77 A. Essomba Bikoula
- 67 M. Al-Rashdi
- 7 T. Al-Ammar
- 8 N. Nández Acosta
- 9 A. Al Salem
- 12 Y. Al Shahrani
- 15 M. Al Qahtani
- 28 A. Al Kassar
- 27 E. Houssa
- 35 A. Al-Siyahi
- 18 A. Al Jaber
- 19 A. Haitham
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