Match report â
Al Ettifaq â Al Khaleej1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Ettifaq
0.99
Total xG
2.16
Al Khaleej
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Ettifaq | Al Khaleej |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | â0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | â0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.6 season average) | â0.28 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | â0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Radhi Al-Otaibi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.4 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form trend: Al Ettifaq are scoring more frequently recently (2.2 goals) compared to Al Khaleej with only 0.67 goals
- Tactical metric: Al Ettifaq averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to 2.0 for Al Khaleej
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 71% chance for away or draw and 62% for home or draw
Risks
- Low attacking output: Al Khaleej averaged only 2.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Defensive vulnerability: Al Khaleej concede an average of 1.94 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Al Ettifaq29%
Draw33%
Al Khaleej38%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Al Ettifaq or draw62%
Al Khaleej or draw71%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
12%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Khaleej: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Al Ettifaq: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Al Ettifaq with Ălvaro MedrĂĄn starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (20/5 games, last 26)
Lineups
Al Ettifaq 4-3-3 · Al Khaleej 4-4-2
Al Ettifaq
- 1 M. RodĂĄk
- 5 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 70 A. Khateeb
- 33 M. Alolayan
- 10 Ă. MedrĂĄn Just
- 42 A. Raslan Kanté
- 43 B. Celina
- 17 J. Larsson
- 9 M. Dembélé
- 7 K. Al Ghannam
Al Khaleej
- 49 A. Moris
- 27 F. Al Sagourq
- 4 B. Kouyate
- 3 M. Al Khabrani
- 5 P. Braga Rebocho
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 8 O. Mascarell GonzĂĄlez
- 12 M. Kanabah
- 11 S. Al Jaman
- 9 M. Benegas
- 19 M. Crespo da Silva
Substitutes
- 71 M. GluĆĄÄeviÄ
- 78 M. Tambakti
- 3 A. Madu
- 4 J. Hendry
- 13 M. Alaeli
- 61 R. Al Otaibi
- 92 T. Baljoush
- 26 R. Sharahili
- 77 A. Abdulelah
- 11 O. Duda
- 58 Y. Al Shammari
- 99 S. Ali Huran
- 80 R. Messi Tanfouri
- 7 J. King
- 13 A. Asiri
- 14 A. Al Shaafi
- 39 S. Al Hamsal
- 96 M. Al-Haidari
- 99 M. Barrow
- 10 A. Fulgini
- 17 A. Al Hafith
- 90 T. Al Khaibri
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