Match report ā
Al Fateh ā Al Ahli0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Al Fateh
1.26
Total xG
2.87
Al Ahli
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Fateh | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | ā0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | ā0.25 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.2 season average) | ā0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | ā0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Eduard Spertsyan on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive form trend: Al Ahli scores consistently at around 2.2 goals per game, while Al Fateh's recent output dropped to 0.7
- Key player Ivan Toney: The visiting striker has scored an outstanding 7 goals in his last 5 appearances
- Mathematical prediction: Models estimate a 44% probability for an away win and expect 1.61 goals for Al Ahli
Risks
- Defensive decline: Al Ahli conceded an average of 2.00 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 0.97
- Extreme conditions: The intense heat of 37.68Ā°C during the match could heavily affect the game tempo
All probabilities
Result
Al Fateh28%
Draw27%
Al Ahli44%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Al Fateh or draw56%
Al Ahli or draw72%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Al Ahli: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al Fateh: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Al Fateh: 89% of all goals in the second half (8 of 9, last 12 games)
Lineups
Al Fateh 5-4-1 Ā· Al Ahli 4-2-3-1
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Å emper
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 17 M. Saadane
- 3 K. Boateng
- 78 A. Anwar Al-Suwailem
- 11 M. Batna
- 6 A. Al Hassan
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 10 L. HaraslĆn
- 9 A. Kanga
Al Ahli
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 15 S. Baattia
- 28 M. Demiral
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 30 Z. Aljohani
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro TrincĆ£o
- 20 M. GonƧalves Martins
- 13 W. Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno
- 17 I. Toney
Substitutes
- 19 R. Kelder
- 4 Z. Aljari
- 7 F. Al Zubaidi
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 87 S. Bin Mahmoud Al Tumbukti
- 88 O. Alothma
- 18 A. Al Fawaz
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 25 M. Al Sahihi
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
- 19 A. Bondarenko
- 21 A. Radif
- 3 R. IbaƱez da Silva
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 16 E. Mendy
- 47 W. Saleh
- 2 Z. Al Hawsawi
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 62 A. Abdo
- 29 M. Yousef
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
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