Match report →
Al Hazm – NEOM SC1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Hazm
1.73
Total xG
3.26
NEOM SC
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hazm | NEOM SC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Khalil Al-Absi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form trend: NEOM SC enter with 3 consecutive wins and raised their recent scoring average to 1.8 goals per match
- Model forecast: The calculations show a 41% home win probability and a 63% chance for over 2.5 goals
- Attacking threat: Alexandre Lacazette (5 goals) and Amadou Koné (4 goals) lead NEOM SC's dangerous offense
Risks
- Match break: Al Hazm have not played for 29 days and NEOM SC for 27 days
- Defensive vulnerability: Al Hazm concede an average of 1.68 goals per game this season
- Head-to-head record: Al Hazm are winless in 2 previous matches against NEOM SC
All probabilities
Result
Al Hazm41%
Draw26%
NEOM SC33%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Double chance
Al Hazm or draw67%
NEOM SC or draw59%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hazm: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (6 of 16 total)
Lineups
Al Hazm 4-3-3 · NEOM SC 4-4-2
Al Hazm
- 36 J. Staněk
- 2 S. Al Rashed
- 4 S. Tanker
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 24 A. Bah
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 22 A. Al Dhuwayhi
- 10 A. Sayoud
- 29 A. Diakite
NEOM SC
- 1 M. Bulka
- 15 A. Abdulmalik
- 5 M. Sarr
- 44 N. Zeze
- 27 I. Hawsawi
- 77 M. Saeed Al Saad
- 23 V. Vada
- 72 A. Koné
- 7 G. Masouras
- 91 A. Lacazette
- 70 H. Camara
Substitutes
- 7 E. Acolatse
- 5 M. Issa Al Yami
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 23 I. Zaied
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 8 M. Konate
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 95 J. Ateeq
- 14 Khalil Alabsi
- 75 K. Al Rammah
- 8 F. Al-Ghamdi
- 4 K. Aldawsari
- 6 A. Alhassan
- 10 M. Benrahma
- 55 M. Al Dosari
- 2 M. Al Burayk
- 33 A. Dagriri
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