Match report →
Al-Fayha – Al Riyadh1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al-Fayha
1.30
Total xG
2.62
Al Riyadh
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al-Fayha | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.42 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.26 | |
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| Mahmoud Trezeguet on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Leandro Antunes not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Balanced outlook: Model calculates a 35% home win and 36% away win probability
- Form trend: Al Riyadh scoring more recently (1.5) than season average (1.1)
- Head-to-head history: Al-Fayha remains undefeated against Al Riyadh (2 wins, 2 draws)
Risks
- Away defensive vulnerability: Al Riyadh concedes 2.35 goals per away match on average
- Limited shot output: Al-Fayha averaged only 3.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Lineup changes: Mahmoud Trezeguet and Leandro Antunes missing from Al Riyadh starting XI
All probabilities
Result
Al-Fayha35%
Draw30%
Al Riyadh36%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Al-Fayha or draw64%
Al Riyadh or draw65%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Riyadh: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
- Al-Fayha: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Al-Fayha 4-3-3 · Al Riyadh 4-2-3-1
Al-Fayha
- 52 O. Mosquera
- 22 M. Al Baqawi
- 2 M. Al-Rashidi
- 25 O. Colley
- 24 A. Bamsaud
- 6 A. Al Hussain
- 5 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 30 A. Semedo Esteves
- 23 D. Remeseiro Salgueiro
- 17 L. Vinicius Marques
- 10 J. Sakala
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 2 Sultan Al-Essa
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 12 H. Yahya
- 6 A. Keita
- 43 B. Mensah
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 14 E. Bahri
Substitutes
- 7 N. Al-Harthi
- 9 Abdulmonam Malek
- 14 M. Al Beshe
- 21 Z. Al Sahafi
- 77 R. bin Enad Al Mutairi
- 1 A. Al-Deqeel
- 12 T. Al Jaadi
- 43 F. Alhubayshi
- 40 Y. Souza de Santana
- 13 O. Abdulaziz Al Bowardi
- 67 M. Alkhaibari
- 11 H. Al-Ali
- 32 A. Dahl
- 23 H. Qasim
- 97 E. Adnan
- 7 M. Hassan
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 17 H. Al Raqwani
- 3 Y. Al Mousa
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