Match report ā
Al Hilal ā Al Ittihad3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Al Hilal
1.97
Total xG
3.32
Al Ittihad
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hilal | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +1.19 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | ā1.08 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.93 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | ā0.68 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | ā0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | ā0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | ā0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | ā0.01 | |
| Sergej Milinkovic-Savic not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sultan Mandash on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| George Ilenikhena on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The calculation model gives Al Hilal a 50% win probability with expected goals of 1.97 to 1.35
- Al Hilal averaged 7.0 shots on target in recent matches and currently scores 3.2 goals per game, higher than their season average of 2.8
- Al Ittihad averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Al Hilal had 28 days and Al Ittihad 32 days of rest since their last match
- Moderate squad impact for Al Ittihad with George Ilenikhena missing, leaving 81% of active goal threat available
- Al Ittihad concede an average of 1.35 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Al Hilal50%
Draw24%
Al Ittihad25%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Double chance
Al Hilal or draw75%
Al Ittihad or draw50%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Al Hilal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Al Ittihad: 44% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 16)
- Al Ittihad: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Al Hilal: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 11 games (45%)
Lineups
Al Hilal 4-4-2 Ā· Al Ittihad 4-2-3-1
Al Hilal
- 37 Y. Bounou
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 87 H. Al Tambakti
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 19 T. HernƔndez
- 70 S. BouabrƩ
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 38 C. Summerville
- 7 G. Martinelli Silva
- 11 O. Watkins
Al Ittihad
- 1 P. RajkoviÄ
- 13 M. Shanqeeti
- 2 D. HĆ©lio Pereira
- 4 J. Simic
- 25 F. Abdi
- 30 D. Lopy
- 27 A. Alghamdi
- 22 M. Al Sahafi
- 10 H. Aouar
- 34 S. Bergwijn
- 21 Y. En-Nesyri
Substitutes
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 28 M. Kanno
- 78 A. Lajami
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 27 S. Madash
- 72 S. Dahal
- 33 M. Al Owais
- 96 S. Alzaid
- 9 G. Ilenikhena
- 5 R. Rios
- 60 R. Kaabi
- 6 S. Al Mousa
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 42 M. Muath
- 50 M. Alabsi
- 8 M. Ali
- 23 G. Wijnaldum
- 32 A. Al Julaydan
- 66 M. Ali Barnawi
- 29 F. Al Shamrani
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