Match report →
Al Hazm – Al Fateh2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al Hazm
1.57
Total xG
2.74
Al Fateh
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hazm | Al Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 10, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 16, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Afimico Pululu not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Prediction edge: The mathematical model assigns a 45% win probability to Al Hazm
- Away goal drought: Al Fateh averaged just 0.67 goals scored in recent matches
- Away vulnerability: Al Fateh lost 3 of their last 5 games and remain winless in the league
Risks
- High defensive leak: Al Fateh concede an average of 2.23 goals per away game
- Limited shot output: Al Hazm averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Draw history: Both historical head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
All probabilities
Result
Al Hazm45%
Draw28%
Al Fateh27%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Al Hazm or draw73%
Al Fateh or draw55%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hazm: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Al Hazm 3-4-3 · Al Fateh 3-4-3
Al Hazm
- 36 J. Staněk
- 4 S. Tanker
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 82 A. Muslim Al-Harbi
- 24 A. Bah
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 22 A. Al Dhuwayhi
- 10 A. Sayoud
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Šemper
- 3 K. Boateng
- 17 M. Saadane
- 87 S. Bin Mahmoud Al Tumbukti
- 6 A. Al Hassan
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 16 A. Al Khaibari
- 11 M. Batna
- 9 A. Kanga
- 10 L. Haraslín
Substitutes
- 2 S. Al Rashed
- 5 M. Issa Al Yami
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 23 I. Zaied
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 8 M. Konate
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 29 A. Diakite
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 95 J. Ateeq
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 19 R. Kelder
- 7 F. Al Zubaidi
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 88 O. Alothma
- 18 A. Al Fawaz
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 78 A. Anwar Al-Suwailem
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
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