Match report →
Al Khaleej – Al-Fayha2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Khaleej
1.44
Total xG
2.58
Al-Fayha
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Khaleej | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.75 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −0.59 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Al-Fayha have only 17% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Tactical trend: Al Khaleej averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 42% home win probability with 1.44 expected home goals
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Al-Fayha concede an average of 2.12 goals per away match
- Winless league run: Al Khaleej are still without a win after 8 league matches this season (0 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses)
All probabilities
Result
Al Khaleej42%
Draw29%
Al-Fayha28%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Al Khaleej or draw72%
Al-Fayha or draw58%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
Lineups
Al Khaleej 4-4-2 · Al-Fayha 4-4-2
Al Khaleej
- 96 M. Al-Haidari
- 39 S. Al Hamsal
- 17 A. Al Hafith
- 3 M. Al Khabrani
- 5 P. Braga Rebocho
- 11 S. Al Jaman
- 12 M. Kanabah
- 8 O. Mascarell González
- 97 F. Al Rashidi
- 7 J. King
- 99 M. Barrow
Al-Fayha
- 52 O. Mosquera
- 22 M. Al Baqawi
- 2 M. Al-Rashidi
- 25 O. Colley
- 24 A. Bamsaud
- 23 D. Remeseiro Salgueiro
- 5 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 6 A. Al Hussain
- 40 Y. Souza de Santana
- 30 A. Semedo Esteves
- 17 L. Vinicius Marques
Substitutes
- 19 M. Crespo da Silva
- 13 A. Asiri
- 14 A. Al Shaafi
- 15 M. Hamzi
- 49 A. Moris
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 27 F. Al Sagourq
- 90 T. Al Khaibri
- 4 B. Kouyate
- 9 M. Benegas
- 1 M. Abbas Ibrahim
- 7 N. Al-Harthi
- 9 Abdulmonam Malek
- 10 J. Sakala
- 14 M. Al Beshe
- 21 Z. Al Sahafi
- 77 R. bin Enad Al Mutairi
- 1 A. Al-Deqeel
- 43 F. Alhubayshi
- 27 S. Al-Jabri
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