Match report →
NEOM SC – Al Ettifaq0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
NEOM SC
1.68
Total xG
3.05
Al Ettifaq
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | NEOM SC | Al Ettifaq |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Amadou Koné on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Haroune Camara on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Muhanad Al-Saad on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Khalil Al-Absi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Álvaro Medrán not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Moussa Dembélé on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: NEOM SC averages 2.25 goals per game at home in the league this season, Al Ettifaq concedes 1.5 per game away
- Form: NEOM SC has 3 wins from their last 5 games, Al Ettifaq has 2 wins in 5 games
- Table: NEOM SC is 5th in the league with 16 points from 8 games, Al Ettifaq is 7th with 12 points from 8 games
Risks
- Attack: Al Ettifaq averages 2 goals per game away in the league this season, NEOM SC concedes 1.25 per game at home
- Shots: Al Ettifaq averages 6.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, NEOM SC 4.2 per game
All probabilities
Result
NEOM SC44%
Draw27%
Al Ettifaq30%
Double chance
NEOM SC or draw70%
Al Ettifaq or draw56%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- NEOM SC: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 12)
Lineups
NEOM SC 4-4-2 · Al Ettifaq 4-4-2
NEOM SC
- 1 M. Bulka
- 4 K. Aldawsari
- 5 M. Sarr
- 44 N. Zeze
- 27 I. Hawsawi
- 7 G. Masouras
- 15 A. Abdulmalik
- 23 V. Vada
- 19 M. Abu Taha
- 91 A. Lacazette
- 10 M. Benrahma
Al Ettifaq
- 1 M. Rodák
- 61 R. Al Otaibi
- 5 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 4 J. Hendry
- 33 M. Alolayan
- 17 J. Larsson
- 42 A. Raslan Kanté
- 11 O. Duda
- 7 K. Al Ghannam
- 99 S. Ali Huran
- 43 B. Celina
Substitutes
- 77 M. Saeed Al Saad
- 14 Khalil Alabsi
- 75 K. Al Rammah
- 8 F. Al-Ghamdi
- 6 A. Alhassan
- 55 M. Al Dosari
- 72 A. Koné
- 2 M. Al Burayk
- 70 H. Camara
- 33 A. Dagriri
- 71 M. Gluščević
- 13 M. Alaeli
- 70 A. Khateeb
- 87 M. Ali
- 92 T. Baljoush
- 26 R. Sharahili
- 77 A. Abdulelah
- 9 M. Dembélé
- 29 Z. Al Ghamdi
- 58 Y. Al Shammari
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