Match report →
Al Hilal – Al Hazm1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Hilal
3.44
Total xG
4.19
Al Hazm
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hilal | Al Hazm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +2.32 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −1.35 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Al Hilal is 2nd in the league with 21 points, Al Hazm is 11th with 9 points
- Defence: Al Hazm allowed 2.43 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.6 goals per match
- Shots: Al Hilal averaged 6.8 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Al Hazm 3.8 per match
Risks
- Away: Al Hazm scores 1.5 goals per match away from home in the league this season in 2 matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Hilal86%
Draw10%
Al Hazm4%
Double chance
Al Hilal or draw96%
Al Hazm or draw14%
No draw90%
Goals
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Over 3.560%
Under 3.540%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
3:0
From xG 3.44 : 0.75, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
4:0
9%
3:1
8%
2:1
7%
4:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Al Hazm: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)
- Al Hilal: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Al Hilal: goal in the first 15 minutes in 4 of 7 games (57%)
- Al Hazm: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Al Hilal 4-3-3 · Al Hazm 5-4-1
Al Hilal
- 37 Y. Bounou
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 87 H. Al Tambakti
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 19 T. Hernández
- 22 S. Milinković-Savić
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 28 M. Kanno
- 7 G. Martinelli Silva
- 11 O. Watkins
- 38 C. Summerville
Al Hazm
- 36 J. Staněk
- 82 A. Muslim Al-Harbi
- 4 S. Tanker
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 24 A. Bah
- 29 A. Diakite
- 9 A. Pululu
Substitutes
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 29 S. Al Dawsari
- 78 A. Lajami
- 70 S. Bouabré
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 27 S. Madash
- 72 S. Dahal
- 33 M. Al Owais
- 5 M. Issa Al Yami
- 10 A. Sayoud
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 23 I. Zaied
- 22 A. Al Dhuwayhi
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 95 J. Ateeq
- 88 Khalid Abduljawad
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