Match report →
Al Taawoun – Al-Qadsiah0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Taawoun
1.26
Total xG
3.50
Al-Qadsiah
2.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Taawoun | Al-Qadsiah |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.96x league average) | +0.98 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.42 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.40 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 2, 15 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 17, 15 places gap) | +0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Mateo Retegui on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Musab Al-Juwayr on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Al-Qadsiah ranks 2nd with 22 points from 9 matches, while Al Taawoun is 17th with 4 points from 9 matches
- Home/Away: Al Taawoun scored 0 goals in 4 league home matches, while Al-Qadsiah scored 3.33 goals per match in 3 away games
- Shots: Al-Qadsiah recorded 6.2 shots on target per match in recent games, while Al Taawoun had 3 per match
Risks
- Attack: Al Taawoun generated 1.2 xG per match in 5 games with xG data, but scored 0.2 goals per match
- Head-to-head: Al Taawoun won 2 of the 4 previous meetings, while Al-Qadsiah won 1
All probabilities
Result
Al Taawoun20%
Draw22%
Al-Qadsiah58%
Double chance
Al Taawoun or draw42%
Al-Qadsiah or draw80%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.26 : 2.23, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
0:2
8%
1:3
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al-Qadsiah: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al-Qadsiah: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 7 games)
- Al-Qadsiah: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Al Taawoun 5-4-1 · Al-Qadsiah 3-5-2
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 70 A. Hendi
- 40 I. Mahnashi
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 32 M. Al Mufarrij
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 16 F. Al Ghamdi
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 47 Y. El Bahraoui
- 9 A. Hamdallah
Al-Qadsiah
- 1 K. Casteels
- 4 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 17 P. Álvarez Sosa
- 8 N. Nández Acosta
- 2 M. Al Shamat
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 5 J. Weigl
- 15 M. Al Qahtani
- 22 C. Baah
- 33 J. Quiñones Quiñones
- 9 A. Al Salem
Substitutes
- 10 N. Bajrami
- 8 P. Guiagon
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 4 N. Al Haleel
- 23 R. Altulayhi
- 6 M. Alhurayji
- 30 A. Al Jadani
- 45 M. Al-Saadi
- 26 A. Badra Diabaté
- 7 T. Al-Ammar
- 10 M. Aljuwayr
- 12 Y. Al Shahrani
- 32 M. Retegui
- 28 A. Al Kassar
- 27 E. Houssa
- 35 A. Al-Siyahi
- 18 A. Al Jaber
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