Match report →
Al Fateh – Al Khaleej2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al Fateh
1.36
Total xG
2.68
Al Khaleej
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Fateh | Al Khaleej |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.7 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Faisal Al-Abdulwahed on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: Al Fateh scored 0.71 goals per game in the league this season, Al Khaleej 0.62 per game
- Rest days: Al Fateh and Al Khaleej both with 3 days since their last match
Risks
- Table: Al Khaleej is 11th with 9 points from 9 matches, Al Fateh is 16th with 6 points
- Head-to-head: Al Fateh won 3 of the 4 previous meetings, Al Khaleej 1
All probabilities
Result
Al Fateh36%
Draw29%
Al Khaleej35%
Double chance
Al Fateh or draw65%
Al Khaleej or draw64%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 5 of 5 games (100%)
Lineups
Al Fateh 3-4-3 · Al Khaleej 4-4-2
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Šemper
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 17 M. Saadane
- 78 A. Anwar Al-Suwailem
- 6 A. Al Hassan
- 20 H. Essadak
- 16 A. Al Khaibari
- 11 M. Batna
- 9 A. Kanga
- 10 L. Haraslín
Al Khaleej
- 96 M. Al-Haidari
- 27 F. Al Sagourq
- 13 A. Asiri
- 4 B. Kouyate
- 14 A. Al Shaafi
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 15 M. Hamzi
- 8 O. Mascarell González
- 28 H. Al Issa
- 90 T. Al Khaibri
- 9 M. Benegas
Substitutes
- 19 R. Kelder
- 7 F. Al Zubaidi
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 87 S. Bin Mahmoud Al Tumbukti
- 88 O. Alothma
- 18 A. Al Fawaz
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 29 A. Al Masoud
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
- 3 K. Boateng
- 97 F. Al Rashidi
- 3 M. Al Khabrani
- 5 P. Braga Rebocho
- 7 J. King
- 12 M. Kanabah
- 39 S. Al Hamsal
- 11 S. Al Jaman
- 99 M. Barrow
- 17 A. Al Hafith
- 16 B. Munshi
- 1 M. Abbas Ibrahim
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