Match report →
Al-Fayha – Al Ahli2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al-Fayha
0.97
Total xG
2.89
Al Ahli
1.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al-Fayha | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −0.96 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.60 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Lázaro on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 52% available) | ||
| Ivan Toney on the bench (11 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Al-Fayha without a win in the last 5 matches, Al Ahli with 3 wins in the last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: Al Ahli won 3 of the 4 meetings against Al-Fayha, with 1 draw
- Attack: Al Ahli averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games, Al-Fayha 3 per match
Risks
- Away: Al Ahli conceded 2.25 goals per match away in the league this season in 4 matches
All probabilities
Result
Al-Fayha17%
Draw25%
Al Ahli58%
Double chance
Al-Fayha or draw42%
Al Ahli or draw83%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:2
From xG 0.97 : 1.92, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
0:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Ahli: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Al-Fayha 5-3-2 · Al Ahli 4-2-3-1
Al-Fayha
- 52 O. Mosquera
- 22 M. Al Baqawi
- 2 M. Al-Rashidi
- 21 Z. Al Sahafi
- 25 O. Colley
- 24 A. Bamsaud
- 6 A. Al Hussain
- 5 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 40 Y. Souza de Santana
- 30 A. Semedo Esteves
- 23 D. Remeseiro Salgueiro
Al Ahli
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 15 S. Baattia
- 28 M. Demiral
- 3 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 30 Z. Aljohani
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 20 M. Gonçalves Martins
- 9 F. Albirakan
Substitutes
- 7 N. Al-Harthi
- 9 Abdulmonam Malek
- 14 M. Al Beshe
- 77 R. bin Enad Al Mutairi
- 17 L. Vinicius Marques
- 1 A. Al-Deqeel
- 47 M. Al Dowaish
- 43 F. Alhubayshi
- 27 S. Al-Jabri
- 19 A. Bondarenko
- 21 A. Radif
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 13 W. Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno
- 17 I. Toney
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 62 A. Abdo
- 29 M. Yousef
- 72 S. Al-Jadani
- 4 M. Diaby
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
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