Match report →
Al Ettifaq – Al Ittihad1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Al Ettifaq
1.34
Total xG
3.08
Al Ittihad
1.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Ettifaq | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Álvaro Medrán not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Moussa Dembélé on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Bersant Celina on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 70% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Youssef En-Nesyri on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: Al Ittihad won 3 of the 4 previous meetings
- Home/Away: Al Ettifaq conceded 2 goals per match at home in 3 league games this season
- Shots: Al Ittihad averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in the last 5 games, Al Ettifaq 4.4
Risks
- Personnel: Al Ittihad without H. Kadesh, starting in 3 of the last 5 games
- Away: Al Ittihad scored 1 goal per match away in 3 league games this season
All probabilities
Result
Al Ettifaq28%
Draw26%
Al Ittihad45%
Double chance
Al Ettifaq or draw55%
Al Ittihad or draw72%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.34 : 1.74, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Ettifaq: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 12)
- Al Ittihad: 45% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 11)
- Al Ittihad: 73% of all goals in the first half (8 of 11, last 8 games)
Lineups
Al Ettifaq 5-3-2 · Al Ittihad 4-2-3-1
Al Ettifaq
- 1 M. Rodák
- 61 R. Al Otaibi
- 70 A. Khateeb
- 5 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 4 J. Hendry
- 13 M. Alaeli
- 58 Y. Al Shammari
- 42 A. Raslan Kanté
- 11 O. Duda
- 71 M. Gluščević
- 99 S. Ali Huran
Al Ittihad
- 1 P. Rajković
- 13 M. Shanqeeti
- 6 S. Al Mousa
- 2 D. Hélio Pereira
- 25 F. Abdi
- 5 R. Rios
- 8 M. Ali
- 23 G. Wijnaldum
- 10 H. Aouar
- 34 S. Bergwijn
- 9 G. Ilenikhena
Substitutes
- 43 B. Celina
- 78 M. Tambakti
- 3 A. Madu
- 7 K. Al Ghannam
- 33 M. Alolayan
- 92 T. Baljoush
- 77 A. Abdulelah
- 9 M. Dembélé
- 29 Z. Al Ghamdi
- 21 Y. En-Nesyri
- 60 R. Kaabi
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 42 M. Muath
- 50 M. Alabsi
- 27 A. Alghamdi
- 32 A. Al Julaydan
- 66 M. Ali Barnawi
- 22 M. Al Sahafi
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →