Match report →
Al Nassr – NEOM SC1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Nassr
1.94
Total xG
3.02
NEOM SC
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Nassr | NEOM SC |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.62 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Amadou Koné not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Haroune Camara on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Muhanad Al-Saad on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Al Nassr score 2.33 goals per match in the league this season, NEOM SC score 1.5 per match
- Table: Al Nassr are 3rd with 19 points from 8 matches, NEOM SC sit 6th with 16 points from 9 matches
- Shots: Al Nassr average 6 shots on target per match in recent games, NEOM SC average 4.2 per match
Risks
- Squad: Al Nassr without S. Al Najdi, who started in 4 of the last 5 matches
- Defense: NEOM SC conceded 0.8 goals per match in the last 5 games, Al Nassr conceded 1.2 per match
All probabilities
Result
Al Nassr56%
Draw25%
NEOM SC19%
Double chance
Al Nassr or draw81%
NEOM SC or draw44%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.94 : 1.08, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Nassr: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)
- NEOM SC: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 12)
Lineups
Al Nassr 4-2-3-1 · NEOM SC 3-4-3
Al Nassr
- 24 B. Krepski
- 12 N. Boushal
- 5 A. Al Amri
- 26 Í. Martínez Berridi
- 23 A. Yahya
- 17 A. Alkhaibari
- 11 S. Costa
- 20 ?. Borges Damaceno
- 79 J. Sequeira
- 10 S. Mané
- 7 C. Ronaldo
NEOM SC
- 1 M. Bulka
- 55 M. Al Dosari
- 44 N. Zeze
- 5 M. Sarr
- 2 M. Al Burayk
- 15 A. Abdulmalik
- 6 A. Alhassan
- 19 M. Abu Taha
- 14 Khalil Alabsi
- 91 A. Lacazette
- 10 M. Benrahma
Substitutes
- 9 A. Al Hamdan
- 50 M. Mohammed
- 6 S. Al Nasser
- 60 S. Haqawi
- 70 A. Aman
- 8 H. Tofee
- 14 S. Al Naji
- 77 M. Saeed Al Saad
- 75 K. Al Rammah
- 8 F. Al-Ghamdi
- 4 K. Aldawsari
- 27 I. Hawsawi
- 23 V. Vada
- 7 G. Masouras
- 70 H. Camara
- 33 A. Dagriri
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