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Al Kholood – Al Ettifaq0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al Kholood
1.54
Total xG
3.06
Al Ettifaq
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Kholood | Al Ettifaq |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.57 | +0.57 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Edgaras Utkus not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Both teams have 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses after 7 league games this season
- Head-to-head: In 4 direct meetings, Al Kholood and Al Ettifaq have 2 wins each
- Attack: Al Kholood scores 1.57 goals per game in the league this season, Al Ettifaq 1.86 per game
Risks
- xG: Al Ettifaq generated 0.97 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.6 goals per game
- Away: Al Ettifaq conceded 1 goal per game in 3 away games in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Al Kholood37%
Draw27%
Al Ettifaq36%
Double chance
Al Kholood or draw64%
Al Ettifaq or draw63%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.54 : 1.52, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Ettifaq: 46% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 13)
- Al Ettifaq with Moussa Dembélé starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (19/8 games, last 30)
- Al Ettifaq: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 8 games)
- Al Kholood: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 10 games. Against Al Ahli: 2 goals (85', 90+2')
- Al Kholood: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Al Kholood 4-4-2 · Al Ettifaq 4-2-3-1
Al Kholood
- 1 H. Abdullah Yousef
- 15 R. Solan
- 38 S. Pinas
- 25 M. Camara
- 7 S. Al Qahimi Al Shehri
- 26 Y. bin Al Zubaidi
- 6 J. Buckley
- 10 I. Kortajarena Canellada
- 11 C. Gomes da Costa
- 22 J. Domingues
- 99 G. Gouveia Rodrigues Cruz
Al Ettifaq
- 1 M. Rodák
- 70 A. Khateeb
- 5 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 4 J. Hendry
- 33 M. Alolayan
- 58 Y. Al Shammari
- 11 O. Duda
- 29 Z. Al Ghamdi
- 43 B. Celina
- 7 K. Al Ghannam
- 9 M. Dembélé
Substitutes
- 8 S. Cisse
- 30 M. Alshammari
- 39 A. Aldawsari
- 70 M. Samili
- 48 M. Abdullah Al Yahya
- 24 O. Slimani
- 23 Y. Madani
- 77 A. Essomba Bikoula
- 47 A. Al Obaid
- 67 M. Al-Rashdi
- 42 A. Raslan Kanté
- 17 J. Larsson
- 71 M. Gluščević
- 78 M. Tambakti
- 13 M. Alaeli
- 87 M. Ali
- 92 T. Baljoush
- 77 A. Abdulelah
- 99 S. Ali Huran
- 88 A.Al-Essa
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