Match report →
Al Hazm – Al-Fayha2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Al Hazm
1.69
Total xG
2.80
Al-Fayha
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hazm | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.38 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Lázaro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 76% available) |
Key factors
- Away: Al-Fayha score 0.4 goals per match away in the league this season, Al Hazm 1.25 goals per match at home
- Form: Al-Fayha are winless in 9 league matches this season with 0 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses
- Table: Al Hazm are 11th with 9 points from 10 matches, Al-Fayha 14th with 7 points from 10 matches
Risks
- Defense: Al Hazm allowed 2.71 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.6 goals per match
- Rest days: Al Hazm with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Al Hazm49%
Draw27%
Al-Fayha24%
Double chance
Al Hazm or draw76%
Al-Fayha or draw51%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.68 : 1.11, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hazm: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (11 points lost)
- Al-Fayha with Fashion Sakala starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.4 (25/5 games, last 30)
- Al Hazm: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Al Hazm 4-2-3-1 · Al-Fayha 4-4-2
Al Hazm
- 36 J. Staněk
- 82 A. Muslim Al-Harbi
- 4 S. Tanker
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 24 A. Bah
- 10 A. Sayoud
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 9 A. Pululu
Al-Fayha
- 52 O. Mosquera
- 22 M. Al Baqawi
- 21 Z. Al Sahafi
- 25 O. Colley
- 24 A. Bamsaud
- 40 Y. Souza de Santana
- 6 A. Al Hussain
- 30 A. Semedo Esteves
- 5 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 23 D. Remeseiro Salgueiro
- 10 J. Sakala
Substitutes
- 5 M. Issa Al Yami
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 23 I. Zaied
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 8 M. Konate
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 29 A. Diakite
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 95 J. Ateeq
- 88 Khalid Abduljawad
- 2 M. Al-Rashidi
- 7 N. Al-Harthi
- 9 Abdulmonam Malek
- 14 M. Al Beshe
- 77 R. bin Enad Al Mutairi
- 1 A. Al-Deqeel
- 12 T. Al Jaadi
- 43 F. Alhubayshi
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