Match report →
Al Riyadh – Al Taawoun2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Riyadh
1.39
Total xG
2.89
Al Taawoun
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Riyadh | Al Taawoun |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −1.24 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.74 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.47 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match) | −0.47 | |
| Declining form (0 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.47 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attacking: Al Taawoun generated 1.16 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0 goals per match
- Possession: Al Taawoun averaged 54.2% possession per match in recent matches, Al Riyadh 42.4% per match
- Defense: Al Riyadh concede 1.33 goals per match at home in the league this season, Al Taawoun 2.25 per match away
Risks
- Form: Al Taawoun are winless in the league this season with 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9 matches
- Attacking: Al Taawoun scored 0 goals in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Riyadh34%
Draw28%
Al Taawoun39%
Double chance
Al Riyadh or draw62%
Al Taawoun or draw66%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.39 : 1.50, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Taawoun: opponent scores first in 5 of 6 games (83%)
Lineups
Al Riyadh 4-3-3 · Al Taawoun 5-4-1
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 32 A. Dahl
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 23 H. Qasim
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 6 A. Keita
- 43 B. Mensah
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 7 M. Hassan
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 6 M. Alhurayji
- 4 N. Al Haleel
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 40 I. Mahnashi
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 16 F. Al Ghamdi
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 8 P. Guiagon
- 9 A. Hamdallah
Substitutes
- 13 O. Abdulaziz Al Bowardi
- 12 H. Yahya
- 11 H. Al-Ali
- 28 J. Petek
- 2 S. Al Essa
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 17 H. Al Raqwani
- 3 Y. Al Mousa
- 20 Battal Al-Harthi
- 76 A. Al-Anazi
- 10 N. Bajrami
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 32 M. Al Mufarrij
- 23 R. Altulayhi
- 47 Y. El Bahraoui
- 70 A. Hendi
- 30 A. Al Jadani
- 45 M. Al-Saadi
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