Match report →
Al-Qadsiah – Al Hilal2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al-Qadsiah
1.80
Total xG
3.65
Al Hilal
1.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al-Qadsiah | Al Hilal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| Attack strength (1.89x league average) | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Al-Qadsiah is 1st in the league with 25 points from 10 games, Al Hilal 2nd with 24 points from 9 games
- Possession: Both teams recorded an average possession of 58.2% in their last 5 games
- Head-to-head: In 4 meetings, Al-Qadsiah and Al Hilal had 1 win each alongside 2 draws
Risks
- Home/Away: Al Hilal scored 4 goals per game away in the league this season, Al-Qadsiah conceded 2 per game at home
- Rest period: Al-Qadsiah with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Al-Qadsiah37%
Draw24%
Al Hilal39%
Double chance
Al-Qadsiah or draw61%
Al Hilal or draw63%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.80 : 1.85, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
3:1
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Al-Qadsiah: 10 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Al Hilal: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Al Hilal: goal in the first 15 minutes in 4 of 8 games (50%)
- Al-Qadsiah: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Al-Qadsiah 3-5-2 · Al Hilal 4-3-3
Al-Qadsiah
- 1 K. Casteels
- 4 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 17 P. Álvarez Sosa
- 8 N. Nández Acosta
- 2 M. Al Shamat
- 10 M. Aljuwayr
- 5 J. Weigl
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 22 C. Baah
- 32 M. Retegui
- 33 J. Quiñones Quiñones
Al Hilal
- 37 Y. Bounou
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 87 H. Al Tambakti
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 19 T. Hernández
- 22 S. Milinković-Savić
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 7 G. Martinelli Silva
- 11 O. Watkins
- 38 C. Summerville
Substitutes
- 7 T. Al-Ammar
- 9 A. Al Salem
- 12 Y. Al Shahrani
- 15 M. Al Qahtani
- 28 A. Al Kassar
- 27 E. Houssa
- 35 A. Al-Siyahi
- 18 A. Al Jaber
- 42 A. Al Qarawi
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 28 M. Kanno
- 29 S. Al Dawsari
- 78 A. Lajami
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 27 S. Madash
- 72 S. Dahal
- 33 M. Al Owais
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