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Al Fateh – Al Shabab1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al Fateh
1.32
Total xG
2.63
Al Shabab
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Fateh | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.61 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 10% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Yannick Carrasco not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Shots: Al Fateh averaged 4.2 shots on target per game in recent matches, Al Shabab 3.8 per game
- Form: Al Fateh recorded 1 win from their last 5 matches, Al Shabab 1 win from their last 5 matches
Risks
- Home/Away: Al Fateh concede 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Al Shabab 1 per game away
- Head-to-head: Al Fateh won 2 of the 4 meetings, Al Shabab 0 wins with 2 draws
All probabilities
Result
Al Fateh36%
Draw29%
Al Shabab35%
Double chance
Al Fateh or draw65%
Al Shabab or draw64%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.32 : 1.31, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Shabab: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 8 games)
- Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Al Fateh: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)
Lineups
Al Fateh 5-4-1 · Al Shabab 4-4-2
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Šemper
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 17 M. Saadane
- 3 K. Boateng
- 16 A. Al Khaibari
- 11 M. Batna
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 6 A. Al Hassan
- 10 L. Haraslín
- 9 A. Kanga
Al Shabab
- 1 M. Diaw
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 55 A. Al Bulayhi
- 37 A. Saeed
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 29 Y. Adli
- 11 D. Castelo Podence
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
- 49 R. Mathias da Silva
Substitutes
- 19 R. Kelder
- 4 Z. Aljari
- 7 F. Al Zubaidi
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 88 O. Alothma
- 18 A. Al Fawaz
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 78 A. Anwar Al-Suwailem
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
- 20 H. Essadak
- 27 A. Alamine Ali
- 3 M. Barry
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 24 A. Al Obod
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 5 A. Makki
- 12 S. Al-Enezi
- 27 A. Al Hawsawi
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 97 M. Khadari
- 35 A. Qasem
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