Match report →
Al Taawoun – Al Ettifaq1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Taawoun
1.66
Total xG
3.02
Al Ettifaq
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Taawoun | Al Ettifaq |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −1.01 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.55 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.40 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.40 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 7, 10 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 17, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Shots: Al Ettifaq average 5.2 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Al Taawoun 13.2 total shots
- Attack: Al Ettifaq score 2 goals per game away in 4 league matches this season, the model expects 1.66 to 1.36 goals
Risks
- Form: Al Taawoun lost all of their last 5 matches, Al Ettifaq took 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches
- Home: Al Taawoun scored 0 goals at home in 5 league matches this season
- Table: Al Ettifaq are in 7th place with 18 points from 11 matches, Al Taawoun in 17th with 4 points from 11 matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Taawoun43%
Draw27%
Al Ettifaq30%
Double chance
Al Taawoun or draw70%
Al Ettifaq or draw57%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.66 : 1.36, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Taawoun: opponent scores first in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Al Ettifaq: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)
- Al Ettifaq: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)
Lineups
Al Taawoun 5-4-1 · Al Ettifaq 4-2-3-1
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 45 M. Al-Saadi
- 4 N. Al Haleel
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 40 I. Mahnashi
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 8 P. Guiagon
- 16 F. Al Ghamdi
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 10 N. Bajrami
- 9 A. Hamdallah
Al Ettifaq
- 1 M. Rodák
- 70 A. Khateeb
- 5 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 4 J. Hendry
- 33 M. Alolayan
- 42 A. Raslan Kanté
- 11 O. Duda
- 17 J. Larsson
- 43 B. Celina
- 7 K. Al Ghannam
- 99 S. Ali Huran
Substitutes
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 6 M. Alhurayji
- 43 N. Al Hawairy
- 47 Y. El Bahraoui
- 20 B. Al-Arini
- 30 A. Al Jadani
- 63 Adel Fallatah
- 87 Ali Sharahili
- 78 M. Tambakti
- 3 A. Madu
- 10 Á. Medrán Just
- 13 M. Alaeli
- 92 T. Baljoush
- 26 R. Sharahili
- 77 A. Abdulelah
- 9 M. Dembélé
- 29 Z. Al Ghamdi
- 58 Y. Al Shammari
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