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Al Hilal – Al Fateh2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Hilal
3.20
Total xG
3.93
Al Fateh
0.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hilal | Al Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +1.15 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.80 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.77 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Gabriel Martinelli not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Al Hilal are 3rd with 27 points from 10 games, Al Fateh are 16th with 6 points from 11 games
- Attack: Al Hilal score 2.89 goals per game in the league this season, Al Fateh concede 2.22 per game
- Head-to-head: Al Hilal have won all 4 previous meetings against Al Fateh
Risks
- Home form: Al Hilal score 1.75 goals per game at home in the league this season, compared to 3.8 away
- Away form: Al Fateh score 1.25 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 0.6 at home
All probabilities
Result
Al Hilal84%
Draw11%
Al Fateh5%
Double chance
Al Hilal or draw95%
Al Fateh or draw16%
No draw89%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.555%
Under 3.545%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
3:0
From xG 3.20 : 0.73, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
4:0
9%
3:1
8%
2:1
7%
4:1
6%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Al Hilal: first goal in 8 of 9 games (89%)
- Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Al Hilal: goal in the first 15 minutes in 4 of 9 games (44%)
Lineups
Al Hilal 4-3-3 · Al Fateh 5-4-1
Al Hilal
- 37 Y. Bounou
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 87 H. Al Tambakti
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 19 T. Hernández
- 22 S. Milinković-Savić
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 27 S. Madash
- 11 O. Watkins
- 38 C. Summerville
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Šemper
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 3 K. Boateng
- 17 M. Saadane
- 78 A. Anwar Al-Suwailem
- 16 A. Al Khaibari
- 11 M. Batna
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 6 A. Al Hassan
- 10 L. Haraslín
- 9 A. Kanga
Substitutes
- 75 M. Meïté
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 28 M. Kanno
- 29 S. Al Dawsari
- 78 A. Lajami
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 72 S. Dahal
- 33 M. Al Owais
- 96 S. Alzaid
- 19 R. Kelder
- 7 F. Al Zubaidi
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 18 A. Al Fawaz
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 25 M. Al Sahihi
- 63 M. Khaled Alshqaq
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
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