Match report →
Al Nassr – Al Kholood5 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al Nassr
2.65
Total xG
3.54
Al Kholood
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Nassr | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.74 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.61 | +0.61 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.6 season average) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| Samú Costa on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Abdulelah Al-Amri on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Edgaras Utkus not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Al Nassr is 2nd with 25 points from 10 league matches, Al Kholood is 10th with 12 points from 10 matches
- Home/Away: Al Nassr scores 2 goals per match at home in the league this season, Al Kholood concedes 1.67 per match away
- Head-to-head: Al Nassr won 3 of the 4 meetings against Al Kholood, with 1 draw and 0 wins for Al Kholood
Risks
- Attack: Al Kholood generated 2.06 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per match
- Defense: Al Nassr allowed 0.72 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.2 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Al Nassr74%
Draw17%
Al Kholood9%
Double chance
Al Nassr or draw91%
Al Kholood or draw26%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.64 : 0.89, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
6%
4:1
5%
5:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Kholood: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Al Kholood: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Al Ahli: 2 goals (85', 90+2')
Lineups
Al Nassr 4-4-2 · Al Kholood 4-2-3-1
Al Nassr
- 24 B. Krepski
- 12 N. Boushal
- 3 M. Simakan
- 26 Í. Martínez Berridi
- 23 A. Yahya
- 9 A. Al Hamdan
- 17 A. Alkhaibari
- 20 ?. Borges Damaceno
- 10 S. Mané
- 79 J. Sequeira
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Al Kholood
- 1 H. Abdullah Yousef
- 15 R. Solan
- 38 S. Pinas
- 25 M. Camara
- 7 S. Al Qahimi Al Shehri
- 39 A. Aldawsari
- 6 J. Buckley
- 77 A. Essomba Bikoula
- 10 I. Kortajarena Canellada
- 11 C. Gomes da Costa
- 22 J. Domingues
Substitutes
- 11 S. Costa
- 29 A. Ghareeb
- 83 S. Al Najdi
- 5 A. Al Amri
- 6 S. Al Nasser
- 70 A. Aman
- 56 R. Al Ghamdi
- 8 H. Tofee
- 14 S. Al Naji
- 22 A. Al-Alwan
- 26 Y. bin Al Zubaidi
- 30 M. Alshammari
- 70 M. Samili
- 99 G. Gouveia Rodrigues Cruz
- 48 M. Abdullah Al Yahya
- 24 O. Slimani
- 23 Y. Madani
- 47 A. Al Obaid
- 67 M. Al-Rashdi
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