Match report →
Al Riyadh – Al-Qadsiah0 : 6
Why the model thinks so
Al Riyadh
1.06
Total xG
3.60
Al-Qadsiah
2.54
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadsiah |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.61 | +0.61 |
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.99x league average) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Mateo Retegui on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Al-Qadsiah is in 3rd place with 25 points from 11 matches, Al Riyadh in 11th with 12 points from 10 matches
- Home/Away: Al-Qadsiah averages 2.75 goals per match away in the league this season, Al Riyadh 1.25 goals per match at home
- Head-to-head: Al-Qadsiah won 3 of the 4 previous meetings
Risks
- Defense: Al-Qadsiah conceded 1.6 goals per match in the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Riyadh13%
Draw19%
Al-Qadsiah68%
Double chance
Al Riyadh or draw32%
Al-Qadsiah or draw87%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.06 : 2.54, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:3
8%
0:3
7%
1:4
5%
2:2
5%
0:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al-Qadsiah: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Al-Qadsiah: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Al Shabab: 2 goals (80', 90+3')
Lineups
Al Riyadh 3-4-1-2 · Al-Qadsiah 3-5-2
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 32 A. Dahl
- 6 A. Keita
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 23 H. Qasim
- 43 B. Mensah
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 7 M. Hassan
Al-Qadsiah
- 1 K. Casteels
- 12 Y. Al Shahrani
- 4 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 17 P. Álvarez Sosa
- 2 M. Al Shamat
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 5 J. Weigl
- 10 M. Aljuwayr
- 22 C. Baah
- 33 J. Quiñones Quiñones
- 9 A. Al Salem
Substitutes
- 13 O. Abdulaziz Al Bowardi
- 12 H. Yahya
- 11 H. Al-Ali
- 28 J. Petek
- 14 E. Bahri
- 16 F. Al-Sobhi
- 2 S. Al Essa
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
- 3 Y. Al Mousa
- 70 S. Suleiman
- 46 A. Alelewai
- 7 T. Al-Ammar
- 8 N. Nández Acosta
- 32 M. Retegui
- 15 M. Al Qahtani
- 28 A. Al Kassar
- 27 E. Houssa
- 35 A. Al-Siyahi
- 18 A. Al Jaber
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