Match report →
Al Khaleej – Al Hazm4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Al Khaleej
1.61
Total xG
2.90
Al Hazm
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Khaleej | Al Hazm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.98 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Mateo Benegas not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| A. Sayoud not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Al Khaleej recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Al Hazm remained winless in their last 5 matches
- Away: Al Hazm concede 2.33 goals per match away in the league this season, Al Khaleej 1.2 per match at home
- Defense: Al Hazm allowed 2.70 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 2.0 goals per match
Risks
- Attack: Al Khaleej score 0.8 goals per match at home in the league this season, Al Hazm score 1.0 per match away
- xG: Al Khaleej generated 1.19 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.6 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Al Khaleej43%
Draw27%
Al Hazm29%
Double chance
Al Khaleej or draw71%
Al Hazm or draw57%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.61 : 1.29, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hazm: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (13 points lost)
- Al Khaleej: 5 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Al Khaleej: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 10 games. Against Al Fateh: 2 goals (84', 90+3')
- Al Hazm: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Al Hazm: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Al Khaleej 4-2-3-1 · Al Hazm 4-2-3-1
Al Khaleej
- 49 A. Moris
- 27 F. Al Sagourq
- 4 B. Kouyate
- 3 M. Al Khabrani
- 5 P. Braga Rebocho
- 19 M. Crespo da Silva
- 8 O. Mascarell González
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 10 A. Fulgini
- 99 M. Barrow
- 7 J. King
Al Hazm
- 36 J. Staněk
- 5 M. Issa Al Yami
- 4 S. Tanker
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 24 A. Bah
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 9 A. Pululu
Substitutes
- 12 M. Kanabah
- 13 A. Asiri
- 14 A. Al Shaafi
- 15 M. Hamzi
- 11 S. Al Jaman
- 96 M. Al-Haidari
- 17 A. Al Hafith
- 90 T. Al Khaibri
- 28 H. Al Issa
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 82 A. Muslim Al-Harbi
- 33 M. Al Ghamdi
- 8 M. Konate
- 21 A. B. Dieng
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 12 F. Al-Aazmi
- 29 A. Diakite
- 95 J. Ateeq
- 88 Khalid Abduljawad
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