Match report →
Al Shabab – Al Ahli6 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Shabab
1.21
Total xG
2.90
Al Ahli
1.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Shabab | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.71 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Ivan Toney not in squad (12 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Eduard Spertsyan on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 61% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Al Ahli with 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Al Shabab with 2 wins in their last 5 matches
- Shots on target: Al Ahli average 8.2 shots on target per match in recent games, Al Shabab 4.6 per match
- Table: Al Ahli are 5th in the league with 21 points, Al Shabab are 12th with 11 points
Risks
- Away: Al Ahli concede 2.2 goals per match away from home in the league this season
- Defense: Al Shabab allowed 1.78 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1 goal per match
All probabilities
Result
Al Shabab26%
Draw27%
Al Ahli47%
Double chance
Al Shabab or draw53%
Al Ahli or draw74%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.21 : 1.69, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
6:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Ahli: 12 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al Shabab: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)
- Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Al Shabab: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Al Shabab 4-4-2 · Al Ahli 4-2-3-1
Al Shabab
- 1 M. Diaw
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 55 A. Al Bulayhi
- 11 D. Castelo Podence
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 29 Y. Adli
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
- 49 R. Mathias da Silva
Al Ahli
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 29 M. Yousef
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 3 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 19 A. Bondarenko
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 30 Z. Aljohani
- 20 M. Gonçalves Martins
- 9 F. Albirakan
Substitutes
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 24 A. Al Obod
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 2 M. Al Shwirekh
- 12 S. Al-Enezi
- 37 A. Saeed
- 27 A. Al Hawsawi
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 97 M. Khadari
- 21 A. Radif
- 15 S. Baattia
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 13 W. Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno
- 62 A. Abdo
- 87 R. Al Attar
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 4 M. Diaby
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
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