Friendly International

Canada - Chile

09/26/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Canada
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Chile
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CANCHI

Canada

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Tani Oluwaseyi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Chile

Attack strength (1.37x league average)
+0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.17
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.01
Felipe Loyola on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Canada: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Canada: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 3
    Chile: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 4
    Chile: 83% of all goals in the second half (10 of 12, last 8 games)

  • 5
    Canada: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

29%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Chile is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Canadian dominance: Canada averaged 6.2 shots on target per game with 54.2% possession in recent matches
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a slight favorite role for Chile with a 40% win probability and 1.43 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Tani Oluwaseyi is missing from the squad, leaving only 62.5% of the usual starting attacking threat available
  • Chile's extreme away weakness with an average of 10.0 goals conceded per away match this season
  • Long international break of 84 days for Canada and 112 days for Chile could affect the match rhythm
Overview

Canada hosts Chile at BMO Field

International friendly on September 26, 2026, 11:00 PM

A balanced and open international fixture lies ahead

Form

Canada shows a balanced form of DWLWL in recent matches

Last match ended in a 0-3 defeat against Morocco

Chile enters with a form of WWWLL from their past games

Chile's most recent game was a 1-2 loss to Portugal

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Canada scored an average of 1.8 goals per game this season and conceded 1.2 goals

At home, Canada scored an average of 1.75 goals per game

Chile scored an average of 0.5 goals per game across 18 matches this season

Away from home, Chile conceded an average of 10.0 goals per game this season

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches found in the database

This is the first recorded direct encounter between these two nations

Key Players

Jonathan David scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in his last appearances for his team

Cyle Larin recorded 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Tajon Buchanan appeared in all of the last 5 matches, reaching a form rating of 7.04

Gonzalo Tapia scored 2 goals this season and recently added 1 goal and 1 assist

DarĂ­o Osorio showed rising form with a rating of 7.37 and 1 goal in recent games

CĂ©sar PĂ©rez impressed with 1 goal and 2 assists alongside a rating of 7.33 in his recent appearances

Goalkeepers

Dayne St. Clair achieved an average rating of 6.45 this season

Canada recorded a total of 2 clean sheets during this campaign

Lawrence Vigouroux holds an average rating of 6.83 for the season

Chile secured a total of 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at BMO Field

Venue statistics show a high average of 4.4 goals per game

At this stadium, both teams scored in all of the last 5 matches

Canada scores an average of 1.75 goals at home, while Chile concedes an average of 10.0 goals away

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