Friendly International
Canada - Peru
10/03/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
11%2:1
9%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Canada
Peru
The Lab
- 1Peru: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- 2Canada: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- 3Canada: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
31%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Tactical dominance: Canada averaged 55% possession in recent matches and showed strong offensive output with 6.6 shots on target per game
- Defensive fragility: Peru concedes an average of 2.17 goals per match this season and is yet to keep a clean sheet
- Statistical advantage: The mathematical model predicts a 41% home win probability compared to just 28% for Peru
Risk Factors
- Reduced lineup strength: Canada starts with only 68% of their usual lineup strength
- Short recovery window: Peru enters this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Away defensive struggle: Peru concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
Overview
Canada host Peru at BC Place Stadium
Friendly international on October 3, 2026, 8:00 PM
The hosts enter this match as the favorites
The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 41%
Form
Canada with a record of 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Form string of the hosts is WLWLW
Peru travels with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
The guests' form string shows DWLLD
Statistics
Canada scores an average of 1.8 goals per game while conceding 1.2
The hosts also recorded 2 clean sheets in 5 matches
Peru concedes an average of 2.17 goals while scoring 1.17
The guests have not kept a single clean sheet this season
Key Players
Jonathan David impressed with 3 season goals and an average rating of 7.35
Liam Millar contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in recent matches
Stephen Eustaquio recently scored 1 goal in 4 appearances
Jairo VĂ©lez is Peru's most dangerous asset with 5 season goals and a rating of 7.15
Yoshimar YotĂșn has already stood out with 2 assists this season
Marcos LĂłpez provided 1 assist and holds a rating of 6.78
Goalkeepers
Owen Goodman starts in goal for Canada
Diego Romero stands between the posts for the guests
Canada has 2 clean sheets this season while Peru is yet to record a shutout
Influences
The match takes place at the BC Place Stadium on artificial turf
Canada's home record on this surface stands at 2S-0U-2N (8:5 goals)
There are no surface records available for Peru on artificial turf
Historical matches at this venue average 4.2 goals per game