Friendly International

Japan - Venezuela

09/28/2026, 10:25 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Japan
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Venezuela
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
JAPVEN

Japan

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.20
Keito Nakamura on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Ayase Ueda on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Venezuela

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.17
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Gleiker Mendoza on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Cristian CĂĄsseres Jr. on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Japan: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Venezuela: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 3
    Japan: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Uruguay: 2 goals (90+2', 90+6')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

31%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Only 0% of the usual starting line-up strength available for Japan, with Keito Nakamura and Ayase Ueda missing
  • Venezuela also fields just 0% of their usual starting strength, without Gleiker Mendoza and Cristian CĂĄsseres Jr.
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an extremely tight match with a 36% home win and 34% away win probability
Risk Factors
  • Japan averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Venezuela concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game this season
  • Restricted dataset with no historical head-to-head encounters available
Overview

Japan face Venezuela at the Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

International Friendly on September 28, 2026, 11:25 AM

A highly balanced mathematical forecast for this matchup

Form

Japan has a form of DWDLW with 2 wins and 1 loss in the last 5 matches

Most recently they secured a 3-1 victory against Uruguay

Venezuela travels with a form of LWDLW, including 2 wins and 2 losses

Venezuela's last match ended in a 2-0 win against Iraq

Statistics

Japan scores an average of 3.38 goals per game this season and concedes only 0.19

Venezuela averages 1.00 goal scored and 1.56 conceded per match

The visitors conceded 20 goals in 6 away games, averaging 3.33 per match

Japan has kept 13 clean sheets so far this season

Key Players

Daichi Kamada provided 3 assists in the last 5 matches with an average rating of 6.94

Tsuyoshi Watanabe features in defense with an average rating of 6.95 in his last 4 matches

Shuto Nakano scored 1 goal and made 1 assist in 2 appearances with a rating of 7.82

Yangel Herrera scored 1 goal in the last 5 matches for Venezuela with a rating of 6.88

Jon Aramburu holds a rating of 6.90 over the last 5 matches in defense

Nahuel Ferraresi reached an average rating of 6.98 across 5 appearances in defense

Goalkeepers

Leo Kokubo played in goal 4 times in the last 5 games, securing a rating of 6.75

José Contreras featured in goal 3 times for Venezuela, achieving a rating of 6.94

Japan has kept 13 clean sheets this season

Venezuela has managed 6 clean sheets so far this term

Influences

The match takes place at the Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Historically, this stadium sees an average of 3.75 goals per game

Japan shows a strong home record with 27 goals scored and only 1 conceded in 8 home games

Venezuela concedes an average of 3.33 goals per game in away matches

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