Friendly International

India - Brazil

10/03/2026, 02:00 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
India
0.9
Total xG
3.3
Brazil
2.5
Most Likely Scores

0:2

11%

1:2

9%

0:3

9%

1:1

9%

1:3

8%
What influences the xG?
INDBRA

India

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.10
28% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Brazil

Attack strength (1.71x league average)
+1.46
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Rayan on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Bruno Guimarães on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Casemiro not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brazil: 10 of 28 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

10%

Draw

18%

Away Win

72%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

28%

Away or Draw

90%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Brazil are missing key players, with only 59% of the usual starting XI goal share available without Rayan, Bruno Guimarães, and Casemiro
  • Tactical dominance: Brazil averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to India's 2.0
  • Model prediction: High win probability of 72% for Brazil with 2.46 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability on historical head-to-head matches
  • Severe offensive weakness for India averaging only 0.5 goals per game this season
  • Brazil's altered lineup with only 59% active goal share due to key absences
Overview

India host Brazil at the Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

International Friendly on October 3, 2026, 4:00 PM

The visitors from Brazil enter this match as clear favorites

The mathematical model predicts 2.46 expected goals for Brazil

Form

India are in a difficult phase with a form of LLLDD

The hosts are winless in their last 5 matches, recording two draws recently

Brazil show a positive form trend of WWLDW with a win in their last match

The visitors currently score more frequently with 2.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8

Statistics

India score an average of only 0.5 goals per game while conceding 1.17

Brazil average 0.94 goals conceded per game this season

The visitors averaged 17.4 total shots per game in recent matches

India averaged only 2.0 shots on target in recent matches

Key Players

Ryan Williams scored one goal in his single season appearance for India

Akash Mishra contributed one assist from defense

Vinicius Junior is Brazil's key threat with 2 goals and 2 assists in 6 games

Goalkeepers

Gurpreet Singh Sandhu starts in goal for India with a season average rating of 6.02

Pedro Morisco started three times recently in goal for Brazil

Brazil have recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

The only recorded match at this venue ended in a 0-0 draw

Brazil hold a nominal advantage due to superior individual quality

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