Friendly International

Mexico - Peru

09/30/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Mexico
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Peru
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
MEXPER

Mexico

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.51
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Jesús Gallardo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Johan Vásquez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
82% of goal output missing (only 23% available)

Peru

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mexico: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

31%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Personnel shortage: Only 23% of Mexico's goal threat is available with Jesús Gallardo and Johan Vásquez missing
  • Defensive advantage: Mexico concedes only 0.33 goals per game on average compared to Peru's 2.4
  • Tactical edge: Mexico averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Peru's 2.6
Risk Factors
  • Mexico with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited data availability for historical head-to-head matches
  • Peru concedes an average of 2.33 goals in away matches
Overview

Mexico faces Peru in an international friendly match

The game will be played at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

The mathematical model estimates a 47% probability of a home win for Mexico

Form

Mexico enters with a form of WWWLD consisting of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Peru shows a form of LDWLL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mexico averages 1.78 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game this season

Peru concedes an average of 2.4 goals while scoring 1.2 goals per game

Mexico has kept 4 clean sheets in home games this season

Key Players

Germán Berterame leads Mexico's attack with a season average rating of 6.74

Jeremy Márquez scored 1 goal in his last 5 matches for Mexico

Jairo Vélez is Peru's key threat with 4 goals in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Óscar García starts in goal for Mexico aiming to maintain defensive strength

Pedro Gallese features for Peru but is yet to record a clean sheet this season

Influences

The match takes place on a grass surface at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

The venue averages 2.8 total goals per game historically

The model estimates a 46% probability of both teams scoring

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