Friendly International

Mexico - Chile

10/07/2026, 02:30 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Mexico
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Chile
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
MEXCHI

Mexico

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Johan Vásquez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

Chile

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chile: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 2
    Chile: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Chile: 79% of all goals in the second half (11 of 14, last 9 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

32%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage for Chile: Chile averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Mexico's 3.2
  • Form trend difference: Chile's recent form trend is positive, while Mexico's trend is negative
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Mexico concedes only 0.40 goals on average at home, whereas Chile struggles defensively on the road
Risk Factors
  • Mexico with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Mexico averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Chile concedes an average of 10.00 goals per away match
Overview

Mexico host Chile at Soldier Field

International Friendly on October 7, 2026, 3:30 AM

Both teams look to use this friendly match to fine-tune their squads

Form

Mexico Form: WLDDL

Mexico recently recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Chile Form: WLLLL

Chile registered 1 win and 4 losses in their past matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mexico scores an average of 1.55 goals and concedes 0.64 goals per game

Mexico's home record stands at an average of 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded

Chile averages only 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded this season

Chile conceded an average of 10.00 goals in their previous away matches

Key Players

Mexico relies on Érik Lira with an average rating of 6.72

Jesús Gallardo recorded 1 goal and 2 assists this season

Armando González contributed 1 goal and 1 assist

Not nominated: Johan Vásquez

On Chile's side, Maximiliano Gutiérrez stands out with 2 goals

Gonzalo Tapia also contributed 2 goals

Goalkeeper Lawrence Vigouroux has an average season rating of 6.82

Goalkeepers

Mexico starts Álex Padilla, who has no appearances this season

Chile counts on Lawrence Vigouroux, who boasts an average season rating of 6.82

Both national teams have already achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Soldier Field

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

Recently, all 5 matches at this venue ended with both teams scoring

Weather conditions feature mild temperatures of 20.64°C with scattered clouds

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