Friendly International

Mexico - Colombia

09/27/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Mexico
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Colombia
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
MEXCOL

Mexico

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.31
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Full strength squad available

Colombia

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.24
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
-0.01
Luis DĂ­az not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
James RodrĂ­guez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 51% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colombia: first goal in 8 of 9 games (89%)

  • 2
    Mexico: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 3
    Colombia: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 17)

  • 4
    Colombia: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

29%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Colombia: Only 51% of usual goal threat is available without Luis DĂ­az and James RodrĂ­guez
  • Colombia averaged 4.8 shots on target with 60% possession in recent matches
  • Mathematical models favor Colombia with a 42% win probability despite key absences
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability due to missing league standings for this friendly match
  • Colombia concedes an average of 1.38 goals per away match this season
  • Absence in the Mexican defense due to the injury of C. Montes Castro
Overview

International friendly between Mexico and Colombia at Soldier Field

Kickoff on September 27, 2026, 3:00 AM

No league standings available for this exhibition match

Colombia enters as a slight favorite based on mathematical models

Form

Mexico shows form WWWWL over their last 5 matches

Last match was a 2-3 defeat against England

Colombia holds form WWDWD and remains unbeaten in 5 games

Most recent match was a 0-0 draw against Switzerland

Statistics

Mexico scores avg 1.88 goals and concedes just 0.25 per game this season

At home, Mexico scores avg 1.86 and concedes 0.29 goals

Colombia averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match

Away from home, Colombia concedes an average of 1.38 goals

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match recorded between these sides

Colombia won that meeting 4-0 on October 12, 2025

Goal record stands at 4-0 in favor of Colombia

Key Players

Gilberto Mora scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Roberto Alvarado recorded 2 goals and 1 assist recently

Johan VĂĄsquez impressed with 2 goals from his last 5 appearances

Luis SuĂĄrez excelled for Colombia with 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Andrés Gómez contributed 1 goal and 1 assist recently

Jhon LucumĂ­ provided 1 assist in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

RaĂșl Rangel guards the goal for Mexico and has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Álvaro Montero is in goal for Colombia, accumulating 459 minutes played over the last 5 games

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Soldier Field

Historically, Soldier Field averaged 2.8 goals per match over the last 5 games

Both teams found the net in all 5 listed games at Soldier Field

Weather data is not available for this encounter

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