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Austria Wien – Sporting Braga0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Austria Wien
1.79
Total xG
2.73
Sporting Braga
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austria Wien | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.26 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Limited offensive threat: Only 20% of Austria Wien's seasonal goal production is actively available
- Tactical approach: Sporting Braga recently dominated with 55.8% possession and averaged 5.4 shots on target
- Statistical outlook: Despite the 0-2 first-leg deficit the model calculates a 56% probability for a home win
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Austria Wien concedes an average of 1.93 goals per home match
- Limited player statistics for Sporting Braga in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Austria Wien56%
Draw26%
Sporting Braga18%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Austria Wien or draw82%
Sporting Braga or draw44%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Sporting Braga: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Pau Víctor: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Austria Wien: 31% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 16)
- Austria Wien: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Austria Wien 3-4-3 · Sporting Braga 3-4-2-1
Austria Wien
- 1 S. Sahin-Radlinger
- 46 J. Handl
- 15 A. Dragović
- 16 Lee Kang-Hee
- 26 R. Ranftl
- 30 M. Fischer
- 22 F. Wustinger
- 17 T. Lee
- 20 J. Hettwer
- 19 J. Eggestein
- 14 K. Boateng
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 10 Pau Victor
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
Substitutes
- 47 A. Kanté
- 13 L. Wedl
- 21 M. Schablas
- 6 P. Maybach
- 10 S. Saljic
- 99 M. Kos
- 37 M. Wels
- 7 V. Markovic
- 40 D. Nnodim
- 44 V. Toifl
- 74 H. Deshishku
- 32 K. Jusic
- 37 L. Barišić
- 17 J. Milošević
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 53 J. Zamith Oliveira Noro
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
- 90 L. Teixeira Pinto
- 87 J. Costa Trovisco
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