🇪🇺

Europa Conference League

Ajax - Sion

08/27/2026, 06:00 PM

5 : 3
Expected Goals
Ajax
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Sion
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
AJASIO

Ajax

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.18
Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+0.77
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.20
Full strength squad available

Sion

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.76
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.44
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average)
+0.14
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ajax: 7 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Sion: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Sion: 8 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)

  • 4
    Théo Berdayes: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Ajax recently dominated play with an average of 66% possession and 7.2 shots on target per match
  • Both teams are currently scoring more frequently than their season average with recently 2.6 goals for Ajax and 2.4 goals for Sion
  • The mathematical model calculates a 74% probability for Ajax or Draw
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for current player form metrics
  • Sion concedes an average of 1.24 goals per away match
Overview

Ajax hosts Sion at the Johan Cruijff Arena

Europa Conference League match on August 27, 2026, 8:00 PM

Second leg follows Ajax's 4-2 away victory

Form

Ajax in form WWDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently achieved a 4-2 away victory in the direct duel

Sion shows form WDWWL

The visitors lost their most recent match 2-4 against Ajax

Statistics

Ajax averages 1.81 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded this season

At home, they average 1.84 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded

Sion scores an average of 1.62 goals and concedes 1.24 away from home

Ajax currently scores more frequently (2.6) than their season average (1.9)

Sion is also scoring more goals currently (2.4) compared to their average (2.0)

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Ajax won this match 4-2 away from home

Sion is still waiting for their first win against this opponent

Key Players

Davy Klaassen has 4 goals and 2 assists at the venue with a rating of 6.87

Steven Berghuis has 2 goals and 2 assists at the venue with a rating of 7.24

Abdellah Ouazane has scored 1 goal at the venue with a rating of 7.61

Anthony Racioppi has already played 1 match at this venue

Ilyas Chouaref has also completed 1 match at this venue

Winsley Boteli has played 1 match at this venue so far

Goalkeepers

Marc-André ter Stegen guards the home team's goal and records an average rating of 7.07 at the venue

The home team achieved 11 clean sheets so far this season

Anthony Racioppi is in goal for the visitors, who recorded a total of 15 clean sheets this season

He has played 1 match in this stadium so far

Influences

The Johan Cruijff Arena sees an average of 3.8 goals per match

Furthermore, the last 5 matches at this venue all ended with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals

The match will be played on natural grass

Ajax has scored 35 goals and conceded 18 at home so far

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.