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Ajax – Sion5 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Ajax
1.23
Total xG
2.17
Sion
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ajax | Sion |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −1.18 | |
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.77 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.76 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.44 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Ajax recently dominated play with an average of 66% possession and 7.2 shots on target per match
- Both teams are currently scoring more frequently than their season average with recently 2.6 goals for Ajax and 2.4 goals for Sion
- The mathematical model calculates a 74% probability for Ajax or Draw
Risks
- Limited data availability for current player form metrics
- Sion concedes an average of 1.24 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Ajax41%
Draw32%
Sion26%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Ajax or draw74%
Sion or draw59%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
5:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: 7 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Sion: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: 8 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
- Théo Berdayes: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Ajax 4-3-3 · Sion 4-2-3-1
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 15 Y. Baas
- 12 C. Oliveira Silva
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 6 Y. Regeer
- 8 J. Brandt
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 68 A. Ouazane
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 20 N. Hefti
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 13 W. Boteli
- 19 F. Surdez
- 33 R. Nivokazi
Substitutes
- 9 K. Dolberg
- 22 J. Heerkens
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 3 A. Gaaei
- 20 O. Edvardsen
- 24 J. Mokio
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 36 D. Janse
- 26 M. Paes
- 67 M. Abdalla
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 22 A. Llukes
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 37 F. Sylla
- 55 L. Villa
- 38 R. Kessler
- 40 S. Caillet
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