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Europa Conference League

St. Gallen - Nordsjælland

08/27/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Nordsjælland
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
SGNOR

St. Gallen

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.88
Attack strength (1.64x league average)
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.17
Full strength squad available

Nordsjælland

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.27
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.23
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Gallen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    St. Gallen: 78% of all goals in the second half (18 of 23, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Nordsjælland: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Nordsjælland: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    St. Gallen: 3.1 cards per game (33 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)

  • 6
    St. Gallen: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 23)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: St. Gallen averaged 8.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Home advantage vs away vulnerability: St. Gallen score 1.94 home goals on average, while Nordsjælland concede an average of 2.07 goals on their travels
  • Venue trend: Matches at the Kybunpark have recently resulted in over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 100% of cases
Risk Factors
  • Nordsjælland concede an average of 2.07 goals per away match
  • The visitor's attack averaged 7.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data availability for individual player form statistics
Overview

St. Gallen host Nordsjælland at the Kybunpark

Europa Conference League second leg on August 27, 2026, 8:00 PM

Following a 0-1 defeat in the first leg, the stakes are high for the home side

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 41%

Form

St. Gallen's recent form is WWDWL

They recorded a narrow 0-1 loss against Nordsjælland last time out

Nordsjælland travel with a run of LWWWW

The away side has won their last four consecutive matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Gallen score an average of 1.89 goals per game this season

In home games, their scoring average rises to 1.94 goals

Nordsjælland average 1.59 goals scored per match

The visitors concede an average of 2.07 goals in away matches

Both teams scored in 28 of St. Gallen's 38 season matches

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

Nordsjælland won the only previous encounter

The last match on August 20, 2026 ended 1-0 in favor of Nordsjælland

St. Gallen have yet to score a goal in this matchup

Key Players

Lukas Görtler has recorded 5 goals and 6 assists at the Kybunpark

Aliou Baldé has scored 4 goals in the home stadium

Jozo Stanic has scored twice in front of the home fans

Peter Ankersen has played one match at this stadium without a goal contribution

Tobias Salquist has also completed one game at the Kybunpark

Stephen Acquah has made one appearance at this arena

Goalkeepers

Lawrence Ati Zigi has achieved 8 clean sheets overall this season

He holds an average rating of 6.79 in his home stadium

Andreas Hansen has already kept 9 clean sheets this term

The away goalkeeper has recorded 2 clean sheets on his travels

Influences

The historical record at the Kybunpark shows an average of 4.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in all 5 analyzed home matches

Matches at the home stadium finished with over 2.5 goals in 100% of cases

St. Gallen play on a traditional grass surface

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