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St. Gallen – Nordsjælland2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
1.23
Total xG
2.17
Nordsjælland
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.88 | |
| Attack strength (1.64x league average) | +0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: St. Gallen averaged 8.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Home advantage vs away vulnerability: St. Gallen score 1.94 home goals on average, while Nordsjælland concede an average of 2.07 goals on their travels
- Venue trend: Matches at the Kybunpark have recently resulted in over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 100% of cases
Risks
- Nordsjælland concede an average of 2.07 goals per away match
- The visitor's attack averaged 7.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability for individual player form statistics
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen41%
Draw32%
Nordsjælland26%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw74%
Nordsjælland or draw59%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 78% of all goals in the second half (18 of 23, last 12 games)
- Nordsjælland: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Nordsjælland: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 3.1 cards per game (33 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- St. Gallen: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 23)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-4-3 · Nordsjælland 3-4-3
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 10 L. Daschner
- 16 L. Görtler
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 14 A. Balde
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 7 C. Witzig
Nordsjælland
- 13 A. Hansen
- 2 P. Ankersen
- 3 T. Salquist
- 15 S. Acquah
- 25 J. Lähteenmäki
- 18 J. Meltofte Janssen
- 8 N. Røjkjær
- 23 R. Norheim
- 37 M. Lamine Sadio
- 10 P. Amoako Junior
- 14 I. Adel
Substitutes
- 31 D. Besio
- 21 M. Efekele
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 47 E. Owusu
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 68 M. Heydari
- 11 A. Rasmussen
- 6 M. Brink Christensen
- 17 L. Nene
- 28 M. Walker Andersen
- 29 P. Berthelsen
- 40 H. Boe Kling Rasmussen
- 4 N. Hesselund Markmann
- 47 M. Såby Heyde
- 32 V. Malmqvist Gustafsen
- 31 A. Ørskov Søndenbroe
- 42 M. Tuka
- 22 C. Eriksson
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