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Europa Conference League

Nordsjælland - St. Gallen

08/20/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Nordsjælland
1.3
Total xG
2.2
St. Gallen
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
NORSG

Nordsjælland

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.73
Attack strength (2.2x league average)
+1.30
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.26
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Full strength squad available

St. Gallen

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.16
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.15
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.45
+0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Gallen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    St. Gallen: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Nordsjælland: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Nordsjælland: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 21)

  • 5
    St. Gallen with Diego Besio: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Extreme home strength on artificial turf: Nordsjælland is undefeated on this surface with 8 wins and 2 draws
  • High recent goalscoring threat: Nordsjælland currently scores more frequently (2.8) than its season average, as does St. Gallen (2.6)
  • Offensive tactics: Nordsjælland averaged 7.0 shots on target in recent matches, while St. Gallen averaged 7.6
Risk Factors
  • Severe injury concerns for St. Gallen with 9 missing players, including S. Kofi Ambrosius (Cruciate Ligament Tear) and C. Boukhalfa
  • Defensive instability for the visitors with 2.2 goals conceded recently compared to their season average of 1.40
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head matches and player form statistics in the provided dataset
Overview

Nordsjælland host St. Gallen at the Right to Dream Park

Europa Conference League match on August 20, 2026, 7:00 PM

A balanced matchup in European qualification

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 43%

Form

Form Nordsjælland: LLWWW

The home team recently secured 3 consecutive wins

Last result was a 5-0 victory against Valur

Form St. Gallen: LWWDW

The visitors are undefeated in their last 4 matches

Most recent result was a 5-1 win against Sheriff

Statistics

Nordsjælland averages 1.59 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded this season

At home the Danish side concedes only 0.94 goals per match

St. Gallen scores an average of 1.89 goals and concedes 1.24 goals

The Swiss side saw both teams score in 28 of their 38 matches

Key Players

Nicklas Røjkjær with an average rating of 7.50 in 14 appearances

Peter Ankersen holds a rating of 7.30 across 13 home matches

Justin Janssen with 2 goals and 1 assist in 13 home appearances

Lukas Görtler is in the starting lineup and played one match at this venue

Jozo Stanic was also named in the starting XI

Lawrence Ati Zigi guards the goal for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Andreas Hansen plays in goal for Nordsjælland and recorded 7 clean sheets in home games

Lawrence Ati Zigi guards the net for St. Gallen and achieved a total of 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at the Right to Dream Park

Nordsjælland has a record of 8 wins and 2 draws with 22-3 goals on this surface

St. Gallen has 1 win and 1 draw with 4-2 goals on artificial turf so far

Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per match

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