Super League
Lugano - Sion
03/04/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.5
1.1
1:1
14%0:0
10%1:0
10%2:1
9%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Lugano
Sion
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Strong home advantage for Lugano: They concede only 0.88 goals per game at home, while Sion concedes 1.54 away
- Direct clash for the top of the table: As third and fifth with only a five-point difference, a win is crucial for both teams
- High-scoring venue: The Stadio di Cornaredo has seen an average of 3.8 goals in the last five matches, suggesting an open game
Risk Factors
- Potential fatigue for Lugano: The team has had only three days of rest since their last match
- Weak head-to-head record: Lugano has won only one of the last five encounters against Sion
- Lugano's offensive struggles: Goal output has dropped to 1.0 goals per game in recent matches, well below their season average of 1.6
Overview
A key duel in the Super League: Lugano, in 3rd place with 46 points, hosts Sion, 5th with 41 points
The match takes place on March 4, 2026, at 8:30 PM at the Stadio di Cornaredo
It's a direct clash for the top spots, where both teams want to secure points
The mathematical analysis suggests a close game, with a slight tendency towards a home win (39%)
Form
Lugano comes into the match with a form of D-D-D-W-L from their last five games
This corresponds to one win, three draws, and one loss
Sion shows a form of D-W-L-W-D
They have recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss
Sion's current form is therefore slightly better
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Lugano scores an average of 1.59 goals per game and concedes 1.19
Sion has a similar average with 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded
Lugano's home strength is particularly noteworthy, conceding only 0.88 goals per game at their own stadium
Sion, on the other hand, is more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.54 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Sion has the upper hand with two victories, while Lugano won once and two matches ended in a draw
The goal difference also favors Sion at 9:5
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
For Lugano, Anto Grgic (6 goals, 5 assists) and Daniel Dos Santos (3 goals, 9 assists) are the central figures in attack
Georgios Koutsias has also proven his goal-scoring threat with 4 season goals
For Sion, Rilind Nivokazi is the undisputed top striker with 11 season goals
He is supported by Nias Hefti, who has already contributed 6 assists
Goalkeepers
In goal for Lugano is Amir Saipi, who has kept 7 clean sheets this season
His counterpart, Anthony Racioppi of Sion, has an even stronger record with 10 clean sheets
Influences
Lugano has a clear home advantage and is difficult to beat at the Stadio di Cornaredo
The statistics from the last five home games show a high goal average of 3.8 goals per match
In four of these five matches, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals
This suggests a tendency for a high-scoring encounter