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Europa Conference League

Sporting Braga - Austria Wien

08/20/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Sporting Braga
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Austria Wien
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SBAW

Sporting Braga

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
-0.73
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.70
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Full strength squad available

Austria Wien

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.83
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting Braga: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 2
    Sporting Braga: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Austria Wien: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Pau Víctor: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Balanced offensive power: Both teams score consistently with averages of 2.0 and 1.8 goals per match according to advancedStats
  • Possession vs. Counter: Braga recently averaged 55% possession to dominate play, while Wien focused on counters with 42% possession
  • Model splits chances: Mathematical predictions show a highly tight matchup with 37% for an away win and 34% for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Squad setbacks for Wien: Absence of attacker M. Sarkaria (cruciate ligament tear) and defender P. Wiesinger
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history and home team's player form statistics
Overview

Sporting Braga host Austria Wien at the Estádio Municipal de Braga

Europa Conference League match on August 20, 2026, 8:00 PM

The mathematical model predicts a close match with a slight edge for the visitors (37% away win vs 34% home win)

Expected goals are calculated at 1.26 for Braga and 1.32 for Wien

Form

Sporting Braga are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with a form of WWWDD

Braga recently recorded two consecutive draws

Austria Wien travel with a form of LWWWL

The visitors suffered a defeat in their last match after a three-game winning run

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting Braga scored 1.88 goals and conceded 1.06 on average this season

At home, Braga average 1.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match

Austria Wien scored 1.44 goals and conceded 1.28 on average in away matches

Advanced stats show both teams scoring consistently

Key Players

Pau Víctor has contributed 6 goals and 3 assists in 29 venue appearances for Braga

Fran Navarro scored 6 goals and 1 assist in 30 matches at the venue

João Moutinho provides stability with a 6.94 rating in 28 venue games

For Austria Wien, Manfred Fischer stands out with a 7.13 season rating

Johannes Eggestein has scored 1 goal with a rating of 6.78

Aleksandar Dragovic anchors the defense with an average rating of 6.92

Goalkeepers

Braga goalkeeper Bernardo has an average rating of 6.28 in 5 venue appearances

Samuel Sahin-Radlinger guards the Wien goal with a season rating of 6.55

Influences

Matches at the Estádio Municipal de Braga average 2.8 total goals

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of the last 5 venue games

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