Friendly International

United States - Chile

09/30/2026, 12:00 AM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
United States
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Chile
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
USCHI

United States

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.18
Malik Tillman on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Chile

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.02
Gonzalo Tapia on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    United States: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    United States: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Chile: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 4
    Chile: 83% of all goals in the second half (10 of 12, last 9 games)

  • 5
    United States: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 6
    United States: 64% of all goals in the first half (18 of 28, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

29%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis forecasts Chile as a slight favorite with a 38% probability compared to 33% for the USA
  • Chile averaged 4.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Chile is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their seasonal average (1.3 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Chile conceded an extreme average of 10.0 goals per away game this season
  • The visitors arrive with a negative streak of 3 consecutive defeats
Overview

International friendly match

United States host Chile at the Snapdragon Stadium

Match on September 30, 2026, 12:00 AM

A balanced match-up in California

Form

United States with a form of WLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Chile shows a form of WWLLL

The visitors arrive after 3 consecutive defeats

Statistics

United States average 2.2 goals scored per game this season

At home, the US team scores an average of 2.25 goals per match

Chile averages 0.5 goals scored per game over the season

Away from home, Chile conceded an extreme average of 10.0 goals in 2 matches

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches are recorded in the dataset

A completely new encounter for both national teams

Key Players

Sebastian Berhalter stands out in the USA midfield with a 7.36 rating over the last 5 games

Julian Hall brings offensive threat with 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

Not nominated: Malik Tillman

Goalkeepers

Chris Brady is ready for the USA with an average rating of 6.70 over the last 5 matches

Lawrence Vigouroux guards the Chilean goal with an excellent 7.60 rating recently

The USA kept 2 clean sheets this season, while Chile recorded 6

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Snapdragon Stadium

The venue averages a high 3.6 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of matches played at this stadium

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