Friendly International

United States - Mexico

10/04/2026, 02:00 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
United States
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Mexico
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
USMEX

United States

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.27
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.14
Sergiño Dest on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Mexico

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.07
37% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    United States: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    United States: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    United States: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (10 of 30)

  • 4
    United States: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

29%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Propotent US attack averaging 2.33 goals meets Mexico's elite defense conceding just 0.4 goals
  • United States averaged 5.2 shots on target and 57.2% possession recently
  • The mathematical model expects a close match with a 34% home win and 37% away win probability
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability of United States conceding 2.33 goals per game and keeping zero clean sheets this season
  • Light rain on artificial turf at AT&T Stadium could affect playing conditions
  • Mexico must cope without the injured defender C. Montes Castro
Overview

United States host Mexico at AT&T Stadium

Friendly International on October 4, 2026, 4:00 AM

A prestigious rivalry match on neutral territory

Form

United States form is LWLWW over the last matches

Mexico form is WWLDD

United States won their last two matches against Chile and Peru

Mexico recorded two consecutive draws against Peru and Colombia

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

United States average 2.33 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded per game

Mexico score 1.7 goals and concede only 0.4 goals per match on average

United States have kept zero clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

One head-to-head match recorded

Mexico won the last meeting 2-0 on October 16, 2024

Key Players

Sebastian Berhalter stands out with 2 goals and 2 assists, rating 7.15

Julian Hall has recorded 2 goals and 1 assist, rating 7.41

Johan Vásquez scored 2 goals for Mexico with a rating of 7.11

Not nominated: Sergiño Dest (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Diego Kochen starts in goal for United States with zero clean sheets this season

Raúl Rangel plays in goal for Mexico with a rating of 6.78

Influences

The game will be played on artificial turf at AT&T Stadium

Light rain is forecast at 23.6°C

United States have a record of 3 wins and 4 losses on artificial turf

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