Friendly International

United States - Peru

09/26/2026, 08:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
United States
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Peru
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
USPER

United States

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.17
Antonee Robinson on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Christian Pulisic not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 14% available)

Peru

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.23
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    United States: 69% of all goals in the first half (18 of 26, last 12 games)

  • 3
    United States: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (10 of 26)

  • 4
    United States: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 14% of the usual starting goal threat is available for the USA as Antonee Robinson (1 goal / 1 assist) and Christian Pulisic (1 goal / 1 assist) are missing
  • Offensive advantage: United States scores consistently, averaging 2.1 goals per game
  • Model prediction: The mathematical advantage lies with the USA with a 40% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Severe loss of quality for the USA with only 14% of active goal threat available due to missing Antonee Robinson and Christian Pulisic
  • Limited data availability with no head-to-head history in the database
  • Lack of match practice due to a long break of over 80 days since the last competitive match for both countries
Overview

United States host Peru at the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium

International Friendly on September 26, 2026, 10:30 PM

The hosts enter the match as slight favorites with a 40% win probability according to mathematical predictions

Form

USA Form: WWLWL with 3 wins and 2 losses

Peru Form: LLDWL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

United States lost their last match 1-4 against Belgium

Peru was defeated 1-3 by Spain in their most recent fixture

Statistics

USA scored an average of 2.2 goals per game this season

Peru averaged only 0.33 goals per game

In home games, USA scored an average of 2.25 goals while conceding 1.25

Peru has conceded 14 goals in away matches so far

Key Players

Cavan Sullivan scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists in his last 5 matches

Peyton Miller recorded 3 goals and 1 assist recently

Justin Ellis provided 4 assists in his last 5 appearances

Jairo VĂ©lez is the top threat for Peru with 4 season goals

Renzo Garcés contributed 1 goal this season

Gianluca Lapadula scored 1 goal in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Matt Freese starts in goal for the USA with an average rating of 6.76

Pedro Gallese guards the net for Peru with a season average rating of 6.40

USA kept 2 clean sheets this season, while Peru secured 5 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium

Home advantage for the USA with a strong home record of 2.25 goals scored per game on average

The mathematical model predicts 1.41 expected goals for the USA and 1.23 for Peru

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