Friendly International

United States - Canada

10/07/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
United States
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Canada
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

2:1

8%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
USCAN

United States

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.40
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
-0.13
Antonee Robinson on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Sergiño Dest on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Canada

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    United States: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Canada: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 4
    United States: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

30%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Attack vs Defense: United States average 2.43 goals at home, while Canada concede only 0.43 per game
  • Form Trends: United States average 2.8 goals recently, exceeding their average, while Canada's attack has stalled at 1.0 recently
  • Model Edge: The mathematical prediction favors a home win at 39% with 1.32 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Tight schedule: United States have had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive vulnerability: United States concede an average of 2.0 goals per home match this season
  • Squad impact: Key players Antonee Robinson (1 goal, 1 assist) and Sergiño Dest (1 goal, 1 assist) are not nominated
Overview

United States host Canada at Allianz Field

International Friendly on October 7, 2026, 2:00 AM

A classic North American rivalry match

Form

United States show strong form with WLWWW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The hosts have recorded three consecutive victories recently

Canada travel with a LWLWW form, winning their last two games

Statistics

United States boast an impressive home attack averaging 2.43 goals per game

Canada excel defensively, conceding only 0.43 goals on average this season

The home team has also conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match

Head-to-Head

One head-to-head match in September 2024 ended in a 2-1 away win for Canada

Canada remain dominant in this short historical matchup

Key Players

Malik Tillman stands out with 2 goals and a 7.14 average rating

Giovanni Reyna has contributed 2 assists for the home side this season

Jonathan David leads Canada's attack with 3 goals and a strong rating of 7.27

Goalkeepers

Brian Schwake starts in goal for the United States

Dayne St. Clair features for Canada, a team with 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Allianz Field under clear skies at 18.65°C

The venue historical average is 3.8 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 100% of matches

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