Super League
Basel - Grasshopper
03/05/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.0
1.2
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Basel
Grasshopper
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
26%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Basel with 50% probability
- Basel's solid home defense (Avg. 0.92 goals conceded) meets Grasshopper's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.17 goals conceded)
- Basel has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches and is the dominant team in home games
Risk Factors
- Grasshopper concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away game
- Key players like Xherdan Shaqiri and Bénie Traoré show a declining form trend for Basel in the last five games
Overview
Basel (4th place, 43 points) host Grasshopper (11th place, 24 points) at St. Jakob-Park
Super League match on March 5, 2026, 8:30 PM
Basel aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table
Grasshopper is fighting against relegation and wants to collect points in the battle for survival
Form
Basel's form in the last five games is WLDLW
This equates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Basel's current goal production averages 1.4 goals, compared to a season average of 1.52 goals
Grasshopper's form in the last five matches is DLDLW
This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Grasshopper is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 1.5 goals, compared to a season average of 1.3 goals
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Basel scored an average of 1.52 goals per game this season and conceded 1.3 goals
At home, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded an average of 0.92 goals
Grasshopper scores an average of 1.3 goals per game and concedes 1.74 goals
Away from home, Grasshopper concedes an average of 2.17 goals per game
At St. Jakob-Park, an average of 2.2 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches
In 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters between Basel and Grasshopper, Basel has 3 wins and Grasshopper has 1 win
1 match ended in a draw
Basel scored 8 goals in these matches, while Grasshopper scored 4 goals
The last match on November 23, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Recent direct duels show a dominance of Basel
Key Players
For Basel, Xherdan Shaqiri (Midfielder) stands out with 10 goals and 10 assists in 26 season appearances
In his last 5 games, he scored 1 goal in 2 appearances, his form trend is declining (-0.42)
Bénie Traoré (Attacker) contributed 6 season goals in 20 appearances, his form trend is declining (-0.37)
Andrej Bacanin (Midfielder) has 2 assists in 16 appearances, his form trend is rising (0.27) with 1 assist in 2 appearances in his last 5 games
On Grasshopper's side, Luke Plange (Attacker) is an important offensive player with 9 goals and 3 assists in 23 games
In his last 5 games, he scored 1 goal in 3 appearances, his form trend is declining (-0.32)
Jonathan Asp Jensen (Midfielder) has scored 7 goals and 5 assists in 24 season appearances
Tim Meyer (Midfielder) contributed 1 season goal and 2 assists in 20 appearances, his form trend is rising (0.23) with 1 goal in 3 appearances in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Marwin Hitz is Basel's goalkeeper and recorded 7 clean sheets this season
For Grasshopper, Justin Hammel is in goal, who achieved 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
Basel benefits from a home advantage with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only an average of 0.92 goals conceded at St. Jakob-Park
St. Jakob-Park shows itself as a venue with an average of 2.2 goals per game
The home pipeline prediction indicates a Basel win with 50% probability
The model calculates Over 2.5 goals with 59% probability
Both teams to score is assumed with 60% probability